Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (April 25)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Shoutout to the Pirates. First place in the NL Central at 16-7 and riding a 7-game win streak. They are no on the main slate tonight, but I like them against the Dodgers as home underdogs (Oviedo is for real).
Lucky Brady Singer vs. Arizona at Home
The crazy thing about Singer’s ghastly 8.14 ERA is Statcast says it should be even worse, as his xERA is 8.58. His .343 xBA and .642 xSLG are also ahead of his actual numbers (.299 BA and .600 SLG).
Now, the matchups have been challenging. Three of his four opponents are top 7 in wRC+ vs. RHPs (Rangers, Giants, Blue Jays), and the Braves are certainly an imposing lineup.
The Diamondbacks aren’t on par with those teams, at least not on the road. But at Chase Field? They mash. Arizona is 6th in OPS and wOBA at home vs. RHPs, compared to 25th and 26th in those metrics on the road, respectively.
SUMMARY: The D-backs stack is cheap, especially on FanDuel (no hitter above $3.2K). Projected ownership is a bit high, but I’m fine eating the chalk since we’re going low-owned at SP (more on that below). I’m also taking Arizona’s team total Over 4.5 on FanDuel (-124).
Justin Steele’s Two Pitches vs. San Diego’s Contact Skills
Steele has given up a grand total of four runs over his four starts. He’s messed around with a curveball and sprinkled in a changeup in the past, but now it’s basically all fastball/slider. Of Steele’s 370 pitches thrown this season, 356 have been the heater or the slider.
Steele’s 2023 peripherals look pretty similar to his career marks, except for the quality of contact numbers. He’s slashed his hard-hit rate to 25.8% (91st percentile) and his average exit velocity to 84.9 MPH (90th percentile).
The Padres have struggled to make significant contact (24th in hard-hit rate), but they put the ball in play. Only one hitter in their projected lineup has a strikeout rate above 21% vs. LHPs. Working against the San Diego offense are chilly temps and wind blowing in at Wrigley tonight. Kevin Roth called it “great pitching weather” in today’s forecast.
SUMMARY: Steele won’t come cheap, checking in as the most-expensive SP on DraftKings and 2nd behind Joe Ryan on FanDuel. That should keep ownership in check. He’s worth paying up for on this slate given the skills and the weather in Chicago.
Jose Berrios’ Price vs. Chicago’s Offensive Challenges
Berrios has bounced back after two terrible starts to begin the year, limiting the Rays and Astros to 3 ER over 12 innings. He only managed three Ks vs. Houston but held them to an 80.7 MPH average exit velocity.
Loud contact was an issue for Berrios in 2022, as he allowed a career-high 90 MPH average exit velocity and 43.8% hard-hit rate.
The White Sox have had a tough time against righties, sitting bottom 10 in most major offensive categories. Only two hitters in tonight’s projected lineup have wOBAs above .340 vs. RHPs.
SUMMARY: It’s a fine spot for Berrios, but the price in particular stands out. He’s just $8.1K on DraftKings, right behind some dude named Bryan Hoeing. Griffin Canning looks like the preferred cheap SP on DK (20% pOWN%), but Canning is more expensive than Berrios on FanDuel. If you’re shopping in this range, Berrios is the guy.