Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (April 4)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
The pitch clock is an undeniable W for MLB. Such an absolute game-changer. Rob Manfred is still the Lewis Brinson of commissioners, but even Brinson launched some dingers.
Andrew Heaney’s New Pitch Mix vs. Baltimore Against Lefties
Heaney overhauled his arsenal in 2022, fading his changeup in favor of a new sweeping slider while adding velocity on all three of his pitches. He’d thrown the changeup at least 15% of the time since 2015, but cut it to just 5.1% last season. Heaney’s slider usage jumped to a career-high 32.4% to go with a career-best 83.4 MPH average velocity (up from 79.4 MPH in 2021).
None of it matters if those pitches don’t perform. Fortunately for Heaney and the Dodgers, the pitch mix adjustment went swimmingly. His K% exploded to 35.5%, easily a career-high (previous high was 28.9% in 2019). The slider generated a minuscule .170 opponent batting average supported by a .168 xBA.
The Orioles had a rough time making contact against lefties last season, striking out 25.2% of the time (4th-highest). They pounded Chris Sale on Saturday but he still had six strikeouts in three innings. Heaney is under $9K on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His strikeout prop is somehow just 5.5 Ks (-130) on PointsBet despite being 6.5 Ks everywhere else.
Matt Manning’s Fastball vs. Houston Against Fastballs
Manning had a rough debut in 2021 (5.80 ERA in 18 starts) but was solid across a dozen outings in 2022 (3.43 ERA, 4.00 xERA). An improved fastball led to better results, as the pitch held hitters to a .198 BA and a .252 SLG.
The Astros love fastballs. Three of their projected starters had Run Values above 10 against 4-seamers last season. Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Chas McCormick were top 15 hitters vs. fastballs in 2022 (by Run Value). The injured Jose Altuve is on that list too.
It’s strength vs. strength here. Given the minimal projected ownership on the Astros (only Alvarez is above 10% on either site), I’d lean toward stacking them and hoping they can find success against Manning’s heater. If looking for one-off bats, Tucker at a measly 2% ownership on FanDuel makes sense.
Kansas City’s Top of the Order Exit Velocity vs. Yusei Kikuchi’s Hard Hit Rate
The projected top four in the Royals’ lineup has me intrigued against the mercurial Kikuchi. Franmil Reyes, Salvador Perez and MJ Melendez were all top 50 in average exit velocity last season. Reyes was in the 92nd percentile. “(player-popup #bobby-witt)Bobby Witt Jr wasn’t far behind and put up a 93rd percentile max exit velocity.
Kikuchi was 1st percentile in average exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate in 2022. The trifecta of a combustible starting pitcher. He did finish 85th percentile in whiff rate and making contact will be the challenge for these Kansas City bats.
Reyes’ strikeout rate has increased every year he’s been in the league, rising to an untenable 33.2% in 2022. Kikuchi’s 3rd percentile walk rate is challenging for Perez and Melendez, for different reasons. Perez (3.5% BB%) and Witt (4.7% BB%) virtually never walk and Melendez loves to walk (12.4% in 2022). Perez/Witt being over-aggressive + Melendez settling for free passes could nullify the upside for this stack.
Reyes caught the Salary Saver tag from MrTuttle05 on both sites. Perez is an Expert Play for Notorious on DraftKings. Good idea to take some shots on the Royals but it’s high-risk, high-reward given how these batted-ball profiles match up.