Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (July 4)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Happy 4th! We have baseball all day today, and there isn’t a true “main slate,” so I’m going to hit on a game in each window.
Baltimore’s Lefties vs. Clarke Schmidt’s Splits
FanDuel’s Very Early slate is just four games. DraftKings’ Early slate is eight games, their largest offering. The Orioles will be one of the lower-owned options on FD, and they’re downright sneaky on DK for the early action.
Schmidt was solid in June with a 3.04 ERA, continuing his stretch of home run prevention. He’s allowed just four dingers over 57.1 innings from May to June, after giving up seven in 25 innings in April.
Lefties are a problem though. Schmidt is striking out 25.3% of RHBs while holding them to a .297 wOBA and an excellent 3.4% BB%. LHBs, however, are only striking out at an 18.5% clip with a .387 wOBA and a bloated 10.9% BB%.
SUMMARY: Ryan O’Hearn is the top target based on price and performance (.222 ISO and .373 wOBA vs. RHPs). Gunnar Henderson is even better in terms of production (.276 ISO and .374 wOBA vs. RHPs), but he’s much more expensive. Something like O’Hearn + Henderson + Santander/Rutschman could take down the early slate.
Kyle Hendricks’ Unique Approach vs. Milwaukee’s Punchless Lineup
It’s fun to have Hendricks back in our lives. He seemed to be over the hill in 2022, but he’s returned to form after recovering from a shoulder injury.
Hendricks allowed 9 ER over five June starts, despite striking out just 14 in 31.1 IP. He’s 90th percentile in average exit velocity and BB%, both of which have long been staples of his profile. Hendricks relies on throwing strikes and limiting damage, not exactly a high-upside combination but a reliable one.
Milwaukee’s projected lineup has just a .141 ISO and a .305 wOBA against RHPs. They’re 25th in average exit velocity as a team on the season.
SUMMARY: Hendricks is being ignored on the Early/Afternoon slate, under 10% pOWN% on both sites. It’s a weird pitching pool with some tough matchups for the expensive arms, so give me the safety and cost efficiency of Hendricks.
Chris Bassitt’s Ceiling vs. Other Ace Options
The only slate that’s the same on both sites is the five latest games, the “Main” slate on FD and the untitled 5-gamer on DK. Pretty much all of Tuesday’s top-flight pitching is in this collection of games.
Ownership and matchup will be the differentiators. Ohtani and Musgrove will be popular, while Giolito and Bieber have difficult matchups.
Bassitt seems like the best combo of ceiling and roster rate. He gets a projected White Sox lineup with a .154 ISO and a 23.6% strikeout rate vs. RHPs. They’re 25th in runs scored against righties as a team since the start of June. Bassitt is coming off six scoreless innings and a dozen strikeouts against San Francisco on Thursday.
SUMMARY: Bassitt’s ceiling projection via THE BAT X is behind only Ohtani and Musgrove on FanDuel. At under 7% projected ownership, he’s a priority over there.