Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (June 13)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Detroit finally ended its 9-game losing streak with a comeback win against Atlanta. The skid dropped the Tigers all the way down to … 5 games out of 1st place in the AL Central.
That division doesn’t deserve a playoff team.
Cincinnati’s Sticker Shock vs. Jordan Lyles’ Nonexistent Skills
The Reds are slowly but surely moving up the offensive ranks. They were 25th in wRC+ vs. RHPs in April, 22nd in May and are currently 13th in June. Turns out adding talented young players to your lineup is a good thing.
But the prices … woof. FanDuel is all aboard the Elly De La Cruz hype train, making him the 7th-most expensive hitter. Matt McLain isn’t far behind. This will not be a cheap stack.
Lyles has been a disaster in Kansas City. He leads the league in ER and is tied for the lead in HRs allowed.
SUMMARY: The cost will keep ownership in check. We only have TJ Friedl projected over 8% ownership on either site. De La Cruz + McLain + Steer + one of the cheap OFs (Friedl, Benson) has a ton of upside.
I’m taking the Reds team total Over 4.5 (-115 on FanDuel). I’ll toss a half-unit on De La Cruz to hit a HR at +600 on FanDuel as well.
Edward Cabrera’s Improving Control vs. Seattle’s Contact Struggles
Walks are Cabrera’s kryptonite, but he’s shown month-over-month improvement. He had a ridiculous 25 BBs over 27 innings in April, then a still-bad 10 BBs over 25 innings in May. Cabrera’s only walked three through two starts in June.
It helps that he’s faced Kansas City and Oakland this month, but strikes are strikes. Cabrera’s upside is evident in his projections. He has the 10th-highest median projection but the 5th-highest ceiling projection.
Seattle’s projected lineup has a 25.1% K% vs. RHPs, including three (!!) hitters currently over 31% on the season. They’ve been decent at drawing walks as a team (11th vs. RHPs).
SUMMARY: On a slate with plenty of solid arms, Cabrera’s strikeout upside is elite. His ceiling makes him a priority for me at SP.
Kutter Crawford’s Misses vs. Colorado’s Swing Decisions
Crawford enters Boston’s struggling rotation with an interesting mix of skills, specifically when it comes to balls outside of the strike zone.
First off, he doesn’t miss too often. Crawford is 95th percentile in BB% with just six walks over 36.2 innings (four starts). And when he does miss, he’s getting swings. Crawford is 99th percentile in chase rate.
You know who likes to swing outside the zone? Colorado. The Rockies are 28th in O-Swing%. Not to mention their struggles on the road (27th in scoring vs. RHP in away games).
The question is if Crawford can get through 5+ innings. He got up to 58 pitches in his last start (on short rest) and we have him projected for 70 today. That might be a little light, and 80+ is within the range of outcomes.
SUMMARY: Crawford is my favorite salary-saver at SP today. Especially on DraftKings where you can pair him with an expensive arm and have tons of salary to afford the pricey bats.