Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (September 26)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Last Tuesday of the regular season! Some ugly weather along the east coast, definitely keep an eye on Kevin Roth’s forecast.
Milwaukee’s Turnaround vs. Zack Thompson’s Splits
Nice full circle moment for the Brewers. Targeted lefty pitchers against them for months, now we’re stacking them vs. southpaws. Milwaukee has been a borderline top-10 offense vs. LHP since the start of August, ranking 9th in wOBA, 10th in OPS and 12th in wRC+. Their improved plate discipline also has them up to 4th in K/BB.
Thompson has slightly above average strikeout numbers (66th percentile), but that’s about all he does well. He’s pitched to a 4.57 ERA with a 4.81 xERA while allowing plenty of loud contact (16th percentile in hard-hit rate).
More importantly for the stack, Thompson has been hit hard by righties. He’s held LHB to a .242/.333/.290 slash line, but RHB have gotten to him for a .283/.340/.474 line. Milwaukee should send at least eight righties to the plate.
SUMMARY: Add in the Cardinals’ weak bullpen (23rd in ERA) and this is one of my favorite stacks tonight. I’ll fade Josh Donaldson at double-digit ownership, but I’ll have plenty of William Contreras, Mark Canha, Carlos Santana and Willy Adames. Tyrone Taylor is also a decent salary saver.
Michael King, Starter vs. Challenging Repeat Matchup
Imagine if New York made King a starter three months ago. That would’ve been cool. His transition to the rotation has gone about as well as possible, with a 1.27 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 28.1 innings (six outings).
Only 28.1 innings across six starts might give you pause, but it’s been a steady ramp-up, and King went seven innings on 101 pitches last time out.
Speaking of that last start, it was against these very Blue Jays. King allowed just one run and piled up 13 strikeouts. Toronto hasn’t been shut down like that too often in September, as they rank 6th in wRC+ vs. RHP this month.
SUMMARY: Back-to-back starts against the same team typically favors the offense. And again, the Blue Jays have been hitting. But King’s performance has been too good to ignore, and his price is more than fair (especially on DraftKings).
Low-Owned Atlanta vs. Justin Steele’s Recent Form
Any time the Braves are popping up with single-digit projected ownership, we have to take note. They’re expensive, they’re facing a Cy Young candidate, and we don’t have a ton of cheap pitching to choose from. But come on, it’s the Braves.
Atlanta has destroyed lefties all season. They’re first in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs. LHP on the year, and top 5 since the start of August. Today’s projected lineup has a preposterous .252 ISO against lefties.
Steele’s streak of 16 starts without allowing more than 3 ER has come to a screeching halt. He’s given up 6 ER in two straight outings, and those matchups (Arizona and Pittsburgh) weren’t nearly as imposing as this one.
SUMMARY: If you can find the salary, a Braves stack is firmly in play. It’s not often the best offense in the league is going under-owned, but that’s the situation for this slate.