MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, April 19th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
This slate isn’t simple. The complexity is in the diversity of options without pitching being terrible, so we’re not gonna be picky in what we cover in this space. We’re instead gonna cover damn near half the slate and try to be concise because there are thin hairs splitting the plays. Let’s split hairs, but bear in mind that we’re splitting hairs.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, April 19th
CHALK STACKS
Braves vs. Andrew Heaney
Mariners at Dakota Hudson
Orioles at Alec Marsh
It’s the Braves against a lefty who can struggle with power prevention can be a way to simplify the slate. We just full-stack ‘em and do what thou wilt with our secondary stacks. Andrew Heaney is historically a great strikeout pitcher who struggled with power. Recently though, his K/9 is down to 9.09, and with it, the HR/9 is down to 1.36. That said, his 3.78 BB/9 and 9.6% barrel rate allowed is certainly exploitable by the righties — 10.4% allowed to righties to only 4.2% to lefties. Matt Olson still hits LHP well, and Heaney shouldn’t pitch deep, while Michael Harris is a good play for speed against a pitcher struggling with command. So we can play all of the Braves.
The argument against the Braves is that they’ll be highly owned, Heaney’s power prevention is somewhat improved, and the Rangers active bullpen has only allowed 0.86 HR/9.
Leading us to Coors Field, where we have a lot of Mariners power facing a terrible pitcher, Dakota Hudson. Hudson has been a bit lucky with the homers — only 0.91 HR/9 on an 8.6% barrel rate — but does induce a 51.7% ground-ball rate, so there’s some method to the madness here from a guy who only has 5.11 K/9 while allowing 3.65 BB/9. His 82.1% contact rate should play right into the Mariners boppers’ hands though.
Seattle strikes out a lot, but against a pitcher who can’t strike anyone out, we should load up on the double-digit barrel rates against RHP:
Jorge Polanco, 15.5%
Mitch Garver, 13.7%
Mitch Haniger, 13.5%
Cal Raleigh, 13.1%
Julio Rodriguez, 11.3%
The argument against the Mariners is that they can whiff a ton against anyone and they will be owned, but they won’t be super highly owned because of the air sucked up by the Braves and the Orioles.
The O’s get a cushy matchup against Alec Marsh, and they’re very affordable. Marsh has surrendered a moderate 8.4% barrel rate, but when he gets hit hard, he gets hit really hard (1.68 HR/9). The O’s don’t have enormous power, but we can play everyone just because the pitcher can give ‘em up against anyone.
The argument against the O’s is also their salaries though. They’re so affordable that they might go over-owned, and this ballpark sucks for power.
At this moment, we can see enough places toward which we can pivot to ignore these three teams with a low amount of entries and even go underweight in MME. But we should truly check in with how pOWN% swings through the day. If one of these teams gains steam at the expense of the other two, we should get aggressive with the lowest-owned of the three.
SimLabs currently has us getting exposure to these three teams the most, so the fade is probably dangerous for MME.
PIVOT STACKS
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