MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, April 26th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
There’s a great deal of pitching on this 13-game slate. We shouldn’t be afraid to stack just about every team in MME, but this could be a night to take firm stands on maybe only 8-10 teams and spread out our pitching exposure. In this space, I’ll highlight the seven teams I’m targeting the most.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, April 26th
CHALK STACK
Braves vs. Logan Allen
Logan Allen isn’t total trash, but he is a lefty, and the Braves’ projected lineup has a .386 wOBA and .247 ISO on a 12.8% barrel rate against LHP. Allen doesn’t have a huge sample, but THE BAT projects him to allow 1.42 HR/9 for the rest of the season. Probably because he can’t strike anyone out and his 3.38 BB/9 is on the high side. The Braves don’t strike out, so this a great spot for them to wreak havoc.
To start the season, righties are crushing Allen over a sample of 94 batters. He’s allowed a .379 wOBA and .271 ISO with an 11.6% barrel rate. We can play every Brave, as Matt Olson is still really strong against LHP, and Michael Harris has so many ways to generate fantasy points, but we wanna target the righty barrel rates most:
Adam Duvall, 16.9%
Austin Riley, 16.1%
Marcell Ozuna, 15.2%
Orlando Arcia, 13.2% (!!!)
Travis d’Arnaud, 11.8%
If Ozzie Albies is in the lineup, his 9.8% rate plays well too, regardless of where he hits in the order. Playing the Braves could mean starting with the best bats from our secondary stack and just filling in the Braves from there. There is a ton of pitching on this slate on which we want to spend up, so going underweight on the Braves is fine. There is cheap pitching too, so the Braves are still easily stackable if we’re willing to give up projection at pitcher (which isn’t a position where we find as much safety as we’ve been accustomed to).
They’ll likely be the chalk. I cranked up the simulation, upside, correlation, and even ownership weights to high with minimum 4-man stacks on SimLabs, and it suggested to go ~55% Braves in large-field GPPs. We have their Opto% on DraftKings at a slate-high 16.87%, which is well above their 10.25% pOWN%.
On a 13-game slate, we shouldn’t X out the Braves for ownership reasons in single-entry and three/four-max GPPs, and we definitely shouldn’t fade them in MME. Sure, they’ll be the highest-owned stack, but the slate is so huge that it might not matter so much, as there’s going to be an organic result of ownership being spread around to cap the Braves’ ownership.
PIVOT STACKS
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