MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, August 30th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
With only 6-7 pitchers and a handful of stacks that I’m interested in playing (I normally just stick to 3-5 lineups on each site), this slate has 20-max potential because the spots that look good for stacks are spots where we can play full lineups. In this space, we’re gonna look at the stacks that pop out, but none of them are severely under the radar, I will admit, so we might have to get ugly to find leverage. We’ll start with Coors Field, where the obvious chalk lies.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, August 30th
CHALK STACKS
Orioles at Austin Gomber
Mets at Jonathan Cannon
A big-time offense like the Orioles going into Coors Field against the disaster that is Austin Gomber is obvious chalk.
Gomber has a slate-worst 5.18 xERA and a near-slate-worst 1.70 HR/9 on a 10.3% barrel rate. And Gomber hasn’t been effective against lefties, so we can play everyone. He’s allowing a .232 ISO on a 9.6% barrel rate just against lefties to a .206 ISO on a 10.5% barrel rate against righties.
Though we can play everyone, we should prioritize the high barrel rates against lefties of:
Colton Cowser, 14.1%
Anthony Santander, 13.3%
Ramon Urias, 12.3% [77 PAs]
Jackson Holliday, 10.5% [35 PAs]
Gunnar Henderson, 9.9%
Add that Eloy Jimenez and Adley Rutschman have shown raw power against lefties in the past, with Austin Slater getting 3 PAs at the top of the order with his history, and Emmanuel Rivera just being in the middle of all of this, and we can reinforce that we play everyone here. Often and aggressively.
Cowser, Henderson, and Holliday could go under-owned because they’re lefties, but we’ve already displayed that it doesn’t matter with Gomber.
The O’s will be the most-owned stack, but pOWN% tells us they won’t be mega-chalk. I think it’s a mistake to fade them in MME, and they should be in our pool for single entry and smaller fields. There are ways to get different and save a little salary with them. Sometimes, just sticking to full stacks with a team gets us different enough. And that’s what I mean by playing them aggressively.
PIVOT STACKS
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