MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, August 9th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’re looking at a gargantuan 12-game MLB DFS slate on Friday night as we hurtle helplessly toward the dog days of August. Kevin Roth says a few games have notable weather, though the most worrisome game – TEX/NYY – has already been postponed. He also has more MLB Weather analysis. We’ve also got another Coors slate with the disappointing Braves set to get the biggest park upgrade of them all.
The Braves-in-Coors thing should be relatively chalky, though it’s fair to assume hitting ownership will otherwise be spread out on a slate with 23 other offenses to stack.
How should we be stacking? Let’s dive in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, August 9th
CHALK STACK
Braves at Tanner Gordon
Who is Tanner Gordon? Apparently, he’s a 26-year-old right-hander with 4 MLB starts under his belt, all of which have come this season. He’s not one of the Rockies’ top prospects, and the numbers make him look a bit below average across the board.
Gordon hasn’t pitched all that well since coming to the majors, though his 4.25 SIERA contrasts sharply with his bloated 6.75 ERA. He has notably allowed 6 homers through those 4 games, along with good control yet subpar strikeout ability. Gordon also hasn’t flashed much ground-ball stuff at the lower levels, so there isn’t much of a reason to expect him to tame the elements in the game’s best hitting environment.
A sample of 4 MLB outings is too small to glean much from Gordon’s splits, though THE BAT says he projects for a small traditional split. Lefties should fare a bit better against him in the long haul, though righties have already accounted for 5 of the 6 homers he’s allowed. In summary, we don’t have to be concerned with handedness when it comes to which Braves we’ll want to jam into stacks. Just play everybody.
The Braves haven’t reached the same great heights they did last year when they hit approximately 6 home runs a game, but the 2024 numbers are still decent. Tonight’s projected lineup has a collective .164 ISO with a .304 wOBA, though they’re dragged down considerably by the miserable numbers of Adam Duvall and Whit Merrifield. I still have interest in Duvall as a cheap bat with some power left, while Merrifield is a tougher sell if he’s going to catch ownership as a part of this stack.
Let’s not bury the lede, though. Where’s the beef? At the top of the lineup, of course. The addition of Jorge Soler gives Atlanta at least a halfway decent Ronald Acuna Jr. replacement, and his 9.9% barrel rate vs. righties indicates he’s due for some regression on his fairly underwhelming power stats on the season. Marcell Ozuna (17.5% barrels), Austin Riley (15.3%), and Matt Olson (11%) are all making excellent contact with power. Strikeouts are an issue for all 3 in general, but that shouldn’t be a problem against Gordon and the Rockies’ dreadful bullpen.
Sean Murphy (10.3% barrels) is still making good contact despite a down season overall, while Orlando Arcia and Jarred Kelenic are both affordable.
Salary isn’t really an issue when it comes to stacking Atlanta, and their projected ownership even looks reasonable, thanks to the size of the slate. The Braves are projected for around 10% stack ownership on DraftKings, yet their optimal rate is in the 15% range. Things look even better on FanDuel, where they’re a shade south of 10% pOWN% with an optimal rate of nearly 18%. The Braves are expected to be the most popular stack, but this is hardly overwhelming chalk we can’t play as a result.
PIVOT STACKS
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