MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, July 12th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
I wanna be ownership-conscious with my stacks because the chalk pitching is just so juicy. That said, the Yankees are the Yankees, and they have a great matchup, so they’ll be tough to avoid getting overweight on. That said, there are a handful of excellent low-owned stacks that we’ll discuss in this space after the Yankees.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, July 12th
CHALKY STACKS
Yankees at Cade Povich
The Yankees active roster is top 3 in wRC+ (117) this season, and they get to face a guy in Cade Povich who’s getting mashed.
Through 125 batters faced, Povich has allowed a 13% barrel rate on a 38% fly-ball rate for a .239 ISO allowed. With just a 16.2% whiff rate, he doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff to battle the Yankees — even without Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo.
We can play everyone from the Yankees. And should, as they should be the chalk for a larger 11-game slate. But we should start with these high barrel rates against lefties against such a high-contact pitcher (83.8%):
Aaron Judge, 35.2%
Jahmai Jones, 17.6% [28 PAs]
Juan Soto, 12.7%
Gleyber Torres, 10.6%
J.D. Davis, 9.8%
Add the speed and mild power of Anthony Volpe at the top of the order and we should feel pretty comfortable playing the Yankees aggressively in all formats.
The only reservation I have is that left field is a tough place to hit homers in Camden Yards since they moved the fences way back, but 400-foot bombs are still 400-foot bombs, and this is one of the best places on the slate for them against one a pitcher with probably some of the worst power prevention on the slate.
At ~10% pOWN%, the Yankees are a team that still won’t cost too many lineups to get overweight on. I think 20-25 out of 100 in MME is a great way to get an edge on the field. They’re firmly in play for single entry, but we’ll have to find a way to stray away from the chalk. The main way to do this is to not pair Cole Ragans, Sean Manaea, and Garrett Crochet with each other in single entry and smaller fields. In MME, we might have to get different with our secondary stacks and one-offs, too. But that won’t be too difficult on this slate.
The fact is that there aren’t really any great ballparks for hitting on this slate with straight-up bad pitching in them. The Great American Ball Small Park will feature two shaky offenses against decent pitching. Guaranteed Rate Field will have Crochet pitching to the Pirates and the unappealing White Sox offense. Angel Stadium will have two decent pitchers on the mound. Fenway is gonna have Ragans on the bump and a decent pitcher in Cooper Criswell on the other side.
This is a slate where I won’t disregard ballparks, but you’ll see that it is less of a factor than on most slates because the best matchups are largely in tough ballparks in which to hit.
PIVOT STACKS
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