MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, July 19th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
If you’re reading this, you’ve finally made it through the All-Star Break. Hopefully, you enjoyed your days off, as we’ve got a behemoth of an 11-game slate awaiting us on a fine Friday night. Weather doesn’t look like it’ll be an issue anywhere, and this slate looks particularly tasty on the pitching side of things. We’ve also got Coors Field to deal with, which should make for some obvious chalk on the hitting side.
Let’s take a deeper dive into stacks for tonight, shall we?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, July 19th
CHALKY STACK
Giants at Cal Quantrill
As of now, it looks like the Giants will be the most popular offense to target on both DraftKings and FanDuel. This isn’t often the case, of course, but tonight, they’ll be the road team in Denver facing the Rockies. There are just two offenses on the slate with implied totals of more than 5 runs, and one of them is San Francisco at 5.58.
Cal Quantrill isn’t bad by Rockies standards. He’s actually probably pretty good by their standards, which means he’s really just an average right-hander overall. His 4.13 ERA is better than his middling 4.62 SIERA, and strikeouts have never been a big part of his game. Quantrill’s K rate this season (18%) is an improvement upon the pathetic 13.1% mark he posted last season in Cleveland, but we stack against 18% strikeout pitchers all the time.
Quantrill’s 9% walk rate is a tick high, though he’s done a fine enough job of limiting barrels (6.1%) and keeping the ball on the ground (46.4%). The Q-Man (???) projects for a reverse platoon split from the right side, and we’ve seen that this year. His strikeout rate is about 5% higher against lefties than righties, while his ground-ball rate vs. left-handed hitters is up over 48%. 8 of the 14 homers he’s served up this year have been hit by right-handed bats.
It’s Coors and Quantrill’s overall numbers against lefties (.232 wOBA, 6 HR allowed) still aren’t great. So, I won’t get too bogged down in splits when it comes to stacking the Giants. They’re not as prone to pinch-hitting now that they’ve replaced Gabe Kapler with Bob Melvin in the manager’s chair. However, there is still some risk with guys like LaMonte Wade and Mike Yastrzemski.
The Giants’ overall numbers this season against right-handed pitching aren’t great, but some of these hitters are consistently making quality contact. Heliot Ramos (13%), Michael Conforto (12.4%), Matt Chapman (11%), Jorge Soler (9.2%), Wade (11.3%), and Yastrzemski (9.2%) all have solid enough barrel rates vs. RHP. Patrick Bailey and Thairo Estrada are low-strikeout hitters who should be putting the ball in play, which is obviously useful in the game’s most hitter-friendly environment.
I never love the idea of stacking the Giants at ownership, even in Coors. The slate is large enough to where I doubt they’ll be overwhelming chalk, but I’d still be surprised if they’re not the most popular offense on the board on aggregate. San Francisco is projected to pull around 15% stack ownership on FanDuel, while they’re in the 11% range on DraftKings. The optimal rates (9.4% FD, 3.6% DK) aren’t quite high enough to justify their expected popularity, either.
PIVOT STACK
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