MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, May 10th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
A lot of decent pitching on this slate, but we’re not getting discounts on it. So it’s gonna be tough to spend on bats, unless we wanna play the ho-hum Robert Gasser making his MLB debut or cover up Patrick Corbin’s name and just exploit the lefty-versus-Boston situation that’s been profitable all season. ‘Tis the season for vomit-pitching combos, so this isn’t stupid. I’m not a salary-conscious player in MLB DFS, but this is a slate where the sites are forcing us to be careful with how we spend.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, May 10th
CHALK STACK
Rangers at Austin Gomber
We have the Rangers’ high-powered offense against the Rockies in Colorado versus one of the worst pitchers on the slate, Austin Gomber. There’s no surprise as to what’s chalk.
Gomber has slate-worsts 5.16 SIERA and 5.69 K/9 and has allowed a 9.1% barrel rate on a 48.2% hard-hit rate. Lefties, specifically, have a .404 wOBA and .253 ISO against this southpaw, so we can play everyone on Texas.
The primary targets are the high barrel rates against LHP of:
Adolis Garcia, 15.3%
Corey Seager, 13.1%
Ezequiel Duran, 10.2%
Robbie Grossman, 9.4%
After them, Marcus Semien has a .362 wOBA against LHP, and cheap pinch-hit risk Davis Wendzel has a good amount of pop too. But, again, this is a play-everyone spot.
The Rangers are likely going to catch a ton of ownership, only capped by the size of the 12-game slate. It’s gonna still cost a lot of lineups to go overweight, but it’s probably worth it. I’m on Team Fade Coors often, but there aren’t too many great spots for hitting on this slate. I’d suggest playing a smaller amount of lineups, if we’re fading Coors (30-50), and max-entering where we’re playing the Rangers.
In single-entry and smaller-field tournaments, we can pivot without much thought to other teams’ pOWN%, as the Rangers are gonna suck the air out of the room. There’s some really good pitching over $8,000 that we’ll wanna load up on. In which cases, we probably can’t afford the Rangers anyway outside of mini stacks, and I think we have to full-stack since the ownership should be so high. We should expect the field to bend over backward to fit Rangers in before prioritizing pitching with salary allocation.
PIVOT STACKS
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