MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, May 17th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
There’s enough affordable pitching on this slate to disregard hitter salaries, devoid of obvious spend-up pitchers, so we can have a lot of fun with stacks. On a 13-game slate, we can kinda play everyone. But in this space, we take a look at the top stacks to target. That doesn’t mean that everything else is far inferior. We can take the logic applied to the 6 teams in this article and apply it toward playing 10 other stacks; the slate is so loaded for hitting.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, May 17th
CHALKY STACK
Braves vs. Matt Waldron
The top-owned stack on the slate should be the Braves facing Matt Waldron, who is bottom 3 on the slate in HR/9 allowed (1.67) with a 10.2% barrel rate allowed and a fly-ball lean (27.8%). His power splits aren’t really to be seen over the larger sample, but he has allowed a .385 wOBA to lefties versus a .295 to righties. Still though, he’s allowed a .206 ISO and 10.4% barrel rate to righties, so the Braves in a play-everyone spot is usually the most appealing for the field, even without Austin Riley.
Marcell Ozuna narrowly leads the team in barrel rate against RHP (17.2%), followed by Matt Olson (17%), who leads the team with a .316 ISO against them. I wanna start with these two for the power upside before going to Ronald Acuna, but no one will ever fault you for prioritizing Acuna and his elite power/speed combo that’s probably the best in the game.
After them, lefties Jarred Kelenic and his 10.3% barrel rate against RHP and Michael Harris (9.6%) are also great plays. They’re not the fly-ballers that Ozuna, Olson, or even Ozzie Albies are, but they can mash, and Harris has stolen-base upside.
We don’t have to neglect 3B without Riley, as Zack Short is an adequate ultra-cheap fill-in with an above-average 8.5% barrel rate through 171 PAs against RHP. He allows us to do almost whatever we want with our lineups, salary-wise.
I’m seldom against playing the Braves. On a huge 13-game slate, I don’t think we need to worry about their ownership. We can play them as low as ~20% in MME, be overweight on the field, and still have room for other stacks to breathe. In single-entry tournaments, I’m not sure they’re the runaway favorite for my full stack, all things considered. But if they are to you, I’m not here to fight you on that.
PIVOT STACKS
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