MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, September 13th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have Coors Field on this large slate without a lot of cheap pitching, so we’ll have to get creative somewhere. I like a tight stacks pool featuring the teams discussed in this space while spreading out exposure at pitcher.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, September 13th
CHALK STACK
Cubs at Austin Gomber
Austin Gomber is pitching in Coors Field, so we know where the chalk lies on this slate. It’s the Cubs, and it shouldn’t be close.
Gomber has allowed a 9.8% barrel rate on a 47.7% hard-hit rate and 28.9% fly-ball rate this season. The Cubs don’t pack a high quantity of power bats against lefties, but the power bats they have should be very effective, starting with these high barrel rates against lefties:
Patrick Wisdom, 18.4% [88 PAs]
Dansby Swanson, 11.9%
Ian Happ, 11.5%
Seiya Suzuki, 8.9%
Add the team-high .233 ISO against southpaws of Isaac Paredes, and the full stack makes itself. We can throw in the 30.8% fly-ball rate of Pete Crow-Armstrong or the 30.1% rate of Cody Bellinger, as Gomber is allowing an 8.8% barrel rate against lefties to get different.
Overall, the Cubs are the top stack on the slate against Gomber and the Rockies bullpen, but it’s gonna cost us a lot of lineups to get overweight on them in MME, so be conscious of that in crafting a tighter stacks pool, as there won’t be much room after the Cubs to spread ownership around.
PIVOT STACKS
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