MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, April 1st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’re back on this April Fools’ Day with a solid little 7-game MLB DFS slate to attack this evening. DraftKings and FanDuel decided to keep the same 7 games on their slates, so we have rare harmony between the sites. The festivities will get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET, though 5 of the 7 games will start at 9:40 or later.
This could be a late-swapping night with the potential for a few teams to release their lineups a bit later than usual, but we’ll see. Fortunately, it looks like we’re all clear on the weather front, with the ugly stuff reserved for the afternoon slate.
So, who should we be stacking up on Monday evening?
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, April 1st
Chalk Stack – Yankees at Ryne Nelson
Fresh off of their 4-game sweep of the Astros to begin the season, the Yankees will continue their road trip tonight in Arizona, where they’ll face the reigning NL champs. The Bombers have the highest implied run total on the board (5.18) as they prepare to take their swings against Ryne Nelson, the D-Backs’ No. 5 starter.
Twenty-seven of Nelson’s 29 appearances a season ago were starts, and the results left plenty to be desired. The right-hander finished with a 5.31 ERA, and his 5.24 SIERA shows that high ERA was deserved. Nelson also hasn’t been a major source of whiffs at the MLB level, as he struck out just 15.5% of hitters he faced a season ago. That’s down a bit from his career 16.3% clip. Nelson has decent control but also a higher fly-ball rate than groundball rate for his career.
Nelson’s barrel rate of 11.6% was also quite high. Hard-hit fly balls tend to become home runs, so it’s no surprise to see that Nelson yielded 24 of those in the regular season last year. His splits aren’t too pronounced from the right side, so we can target bats against him tonight without handedness prejudice.
The Yankees are going to do some slugging this season, of course. We’ve already seen Juan Soto get off to a blazing start, and you can make an easy case for he and Aaron Judge as the top two hitters on the entire slate. Judge was quiet in the opening series, but it’s just a matter of time until he kicks it into gear. Giancarlo Stanton and Austin Wells (small sample) were the only other Yankee hitters with ISOs of at least .200 vs. right-handed pitching a season ago, though Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo, and Alex Verdugo all have solid track records of hitting for power.
The ownership is likely to be there, as the Yankees currently project as the most popular stack on both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, the spot is so good that they’re still projecting to be under-owned, according to our projections. The Yanks’ 20% opto rate trumps their current 15% projected stack ownership on DraftKings. It’s even crazier on FanDuel, as has been the case for the past couple of slates. The Yankees have a whopping 29.5% FD optimal percentage thanks to their cheaper-on-aggregate salaries. They’re pulling around 15% stack pOWN% over there.
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