MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, July 1st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy July! We’ve got a small 3-game main slate for Monday that begins at 3:07 PM ET. 1 of those 3 games takes place in Coors Field, and there are 3 pretty solid pitching options, with the still underpriced Hunter Brown standing out as obvious chalk. It all lines up to be a pretty straightforward slate in terms of where the ownership will congregate.
Let’s jump in and discuss our stacking options.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, July 1st
CHALK STACK
Brewers at Austin Gomber
The Brewers stand out as the top offense on the board, with an implied run total above 6 runs. They head into Coors Field for a matchup with the left-handed Austin Gomber and the Rockies. Overall, the Brewers are a top 10 offense (109 wRC+), but they have had their fair share of struggles against LHP (93 wRC+). Ownership is pretty likely to concentrate around the Brewers bats, especially on FanDuel where they have not been priced up.
Gomber has pitched to a 4.69 SIERA with a below-average 16.3% strikeout rate. He has allowed a 38% hard hit rate, 10.6% barrel rate, and 40.4% fly balls that have yielded a 1.54 HR/9. This is a very attackable starting pitcher, and the bullpen behind him is even worse.
When breaking down individual bats for the Brewers, it is pretty easy to see why they have had their struggles against LHP. Only Christian Yelich (.392), Joey Ortiz (.345), and William Contreras (.338) own an above-average wOBA against LHP. Rhys Hoskins (9.4%) and Andruw Monasterio (8.7%) own above-average barrel rates, but their quality contact has not yet translated to above-average production. No other hitter in the lineup owns a barrel rate above 7%.
Despite the lackluster performance against LHP this season, Gomber is weak enough to want to target, and the Brewers would be a top target even on a full main slate. The bullpen behind him has surrendered a 4.48 SIERA with just an 18.1% strikeout rate. Both of those marks are the worst in the league, and their 10.9% walk rate is the 4th highest. Best-case scenario would be the Brewers touching up Gomber and driving up his pitch count, which could lead to 4+ innings of at-bats against the league’s worst bullpen.
Differentiation is key on a 3-game slate, so you are certainly allowed to fade Brewers bats in single-entry and small-field tournaments. They should pretty comfortably be the most popular stack.
PIVOT STACK
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