MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, June 10th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a 6-game main slate to get the week started on Monday. The chalk build seems fairly obvious, with two aces in excellent matchups and an under-priced Twins offense owning the highest implied run total on the board.
Game theory and differentiation will be important strategies in tournaments today, so let’s jump in and break it down.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, June 10th
CHALK STACK
Twins vs. Dakota Hudson
The Twins are basically a league-average offense, but their matchup with Dakota Hudson today will push them to the top of the list for many. Hudson owns a 5.25 ERA in 12 starts, and underlying metrics do nothing to deliver much hope for the right-hander. He has walked nearly as many batters as he has struck out, and he has allowed a 42.2% hard-hit rate. He relies almost entirely on ground balls and batted-ball luck to produce outs.
Minnesota has dealt with their fair share of injuries, but they may be as healthy as they have been all season long.
Royce Lewis is back in the lineup after a quad strain on Opening Day derailed his season. He was in the midst of a major breakout last season before an ACL injury shut him down. Although he has been limited, his .299 ISO and .421 wOBA versus righties these last two seasons easily lead the team.
Carlos Correa is enjoying a solid season after struggling in the last campaign. He owns a .189 ISO vs. RHP, and his 11.6% barrel rate against righties trails only Lewis.
Lefties Trevor Larnach and Max Kepler both display above-average power and barrel rates against righties. Kepler’s 39% fly-ball rate should be extremely useful against Hudson’s ground-ball profile.
It has been a major struggle against right-handed pitching for Byron Buxton this season, but it is tempting to chase the talent.
Jose Miranda and Willi Castro have both enjoyed above average success against righties this season.
On FanDuel, there is not a single Twins hitter priced above $3,500. On DraftKings, only Royce Lewis is priced above $4,500.
Attractive prices and a high implied run total will surely make the Twins popular today. Our Top Stacks tool has them checking-in around 17% stack pOWN% on both sites. The stack’s optimal rate is above 23% on FD, where it is simply too easy to fit them in. On DK, the optimal rate lags slightly behind pOWN% at 13%.
If you plan to go with Dylan Cease and the top four Twins on FD, there needs to be something to set you apart in the remaining four spots of your roster.
PIVOT STACK
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