MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, June 24th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a 9-game main slate for MLB DFS on Monday. There are some high-strikeout pitchers that will be as big of a priority as the top offenses of the day. There is also enough offense to like that stack ownership will not be much of a concern.
Let’s dive in and discuss some of the stacks to target.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, June 24th
CHALK STACKS
Royals vs. Roddery Munoz
Padres vs. Patrick Corbin
There is a group of four teams that project for above 9% stack ownership on each site, but none of those teams project for more than 11% pOWN%. If I had to guess, ownership will condense around the Royals and Padres in single-entry and smaller-field tournaments. For large-field tournaments and MME, I don’t think we need to be all that concerned about ownership if using a full stack.
Let’s start with the Royals, who get a home matchup against Roddery Munoz. The Marlins righty owns a 5.76 ERA in 6 big league starts. Estimators like SIERA (4.34) and xFIP (4.39) believe he has actually pitched a bit better than that, but there is an outlier. The statcast metric xERA, which is driven by quality of contact, is not a believer whatsoever. Munoz has allowed a 15.9% barrel rate and 50% hard-contact rate – that has his xERA up at 7.00. Yikes, those are some scary numbers.
Kansas City has hovered around league average as an offense for most of the season. There are some obvious high-end bats to target, but the lineup thins out thereafter.
Bobby Witt Jr. is the clear standout who owns a .230 ISO and .392 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He also has 21 stolen bases to further add to his DFS upside.
Salvador Perez (.187) and Vinnie Pasquantino (.184) both own an above-average ISO against righties with above-average strikeout rates.
MJ Melendez and Nelson Velazquez are also both above average in the power department, but their high strikeout rates introduce a little more risk.
Bobby Witt has salaries in the elite tier, as expected. But outside of Witt and Salvador Perez on DK, the Royals are quite affordable.
The Padres are also in a great position against another pitcher who gives up loads of hard contact. As DFS players, we have been picking on Patrick Corbin for years. His 5.60 ERA, 10.6% barrel rate, and 48.2% hard-contact rate give no reason to stop that tradition now. He also owns a career-low 15.2% strikeout rate.
San Diego has been one of the better offenses in baseball this season. Their 113 wRC+ ranks 5th in MLB, and their .321 wOBA ranks 9th.
In a lineup with two superstar players, Jurickson Profar has actually been the Padres’ best hitter against lefties this season. His .217 ISO and .430 wOBA against lefties both lead the team.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has experienced a power outage against lefties this season, with just a .079 ISO in 109 plate appearances, but he just posted a .227 ISO against lefties last season. His 9.7% barrel rate against lefties this season leaves little doubt that he will hit for plenty of power going forward.
Manny Machado got off to an extremely slow start this season and has dealt with multiple injuries, but he has been heating up of late. His .151 ISO vs. LHP is above league average and trending in the right direction.
Donovan Solano has been a nice addition to the lineup, and he has hit lefties well throughout his career.
Ha-Seong Kim hasn’t enjoyed the same level of success against lefties this season, but he is just a year removed from posting a .219 ISO against them.
The Padres are cheap on FanDuel, with no hitter being priced above $3,600. On DraftKings, Tatis and Machado are rightfully priced up, but we can get a nice discount on Profar and Solano to give us an affordable stack overall.
PIVOT STACK
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
