MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, April 20th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
FanDuel went wild with their early slates today, so we’re focusing today on the DraftKings 8-gamer that starts at 1:05 PM ET. There’s just 1 game starting that early, with 3 more in the 2 PM window. The final 4 games will get underway at 4:05 ET.
We don’t have Coors on this slate, but we do have gusty winds blowing out to the outfield in a few spots. I’d expect the hitting ownership to be fairly spread out today, but let’s dive in and see how we’ll attack the slate from a stacking standpoint.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, April 20th
Chalk Stack – Dodgers vs. Jose Butto
It’s a bit rare to get a slate with the Dodgers not pulling ownership. Today does not appear to be one of those days, as they’re projected for the most stack ownership on DraftKings (16.4%) ahead of today’s matchup at home against the Mets’ Jose Butto.
Strangely enough, Butto has been terrific through his first 2 starts of 2024. The 26-year-old has yielded just a single earned run with 15 strikeouts and 5 hits allowed through 12 innings of work. Walks have been a bit of an issue (9.1%), but that’s really the only blemish on his résumé thus far. Those games came against the Tigers and Royals.
Of course, the Dodgers are a significantly more daunting foe, at least on paper. Butto has a career 4.61 SIERA with a K rate of about 23% across 58 career innings in the majors, and his sketchy control (11.8%) has been a theme. He also wasn’t a very imposing strikeout pitcher in the minors, so I’ll take his current 34% strikeout rate this season with a hefty grain of salt.
Butto is due to regress, and it might as well happen today. He projects for an average platoon split from the right side, though RHBs have actually given him more trouble early in his career. In this spot, I won’t be overly concerned with the splits. Shohei Ohtani (.375 ISO, .472 wOBA) has absolutely raked right-handed pitching over the past couple of years, while all of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and James Outman have ISOs of over .200. Will Smith is one of the better hitting catchers in the league, while noted lefty masher Teoscar Hernandez has a barrel rate pushing 10% vs. RHPs on the year.
A few affordable pitchers make it pretty easy to prioritize this expensive Dodgers stack too. Bailey Ober ($7,000) figures to be very chalky today on DK at that silly salary, while you can also punt your SP2 spot with someone like Miles Mikolas ($5,900). Jesus Luzardo ($8,600), Nestor Cortes ($7,100), Kutter Crawford ($8,000), Reese Olson ($7,300), and Mitch Keller ($7,800) are all cheap enough to make LA attainable too.
The Dodgers’ optimal rate of around 12% means they’re a bit over-owned in projections, but that’s still the highest opto rate on the slate.
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