MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, August 17th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
At long last, we’ve made it to the weekend. What greets us is the standard split-slate Saturday, through we’re here to discuss the eight-game main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel kicking off at 7:05 PM ET. We’ve got another Coors slate with the Padres in Denver, though the Pads and Astros are the only teams on the board with implied run totals currently north of 5.
How should we be stacking tonight?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, August 17th
CHALKY STACK
Padres at Kyle Freeland
The Padres were quiet in the first game of the series last night against Cal Quantrill, and tonight they’ll take on another wily veteran in Kyle Freeland. San Diego’s implied total of 6.28 runs is very easily the highest on the board, so they should be the chalk stack again tonight in spite of their middling outing yesterday.
For the year, Freeland is sporting an ugly 5.75 ERA through 13 starts, while the ground ball lean he relied upon earlier in his career has all but evaporated this season (39.4%). Freeland’s 10% barrel rate allowed this year is also the worst of his career, though his 4.36 SIERA suggests his ERA is unlucky. Freeland actually pitched to a 3.52 ERA in July, though he was aided by 3 starts away from home. In 2 outings at Coors so far in August, his ERA is back up to 6.48 across 8.1 innings of work.
Home/road splits are generally noisy, but that isn’t really the case when your home park is Coors Field. The Padres aren’t the most imposing on-paper offense right now with Fernando Tatis Jr. still on the shelf, but one thing they do exceedingly well is get the bat to the baseball. Tonight’s projected San Diego lineup is striking out just 16.5% of the time so far this season vs. left-handed pitching.
Unfortunately, one thing they also do is hit the ball on the ground, which plays into Freeland’s historical strength. The top 3 hitters in the projected order – Luis Arraez, Jurickson Profar, and Xander Bogaerts – have all hit the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time vs. LHP in 2024. We can say the same of Jackson Merrill (projected to hit 6th) and Bryce Johnson (9th).
As a result, it’s easy to see how the Padres may come up shy of expectations tonight. They’ll just keep mashing the ball into the ground against Freeland while perhaps snagging 3-4 runs against him. Fortunately for San Diego, they should also get plenty of looks at that dreadful Rockies bullpen that comes into this one ranked dead last in the majors among relief units in ERA (5.64).
The headliner in any Padres stack is Manny Machado, who continues to hit the ball hard (12.2% barrels) and in the air (37.8% GBs) against left-handed pitching. Kyle Higashioka is really the only other hitter meeting those criteria, though Donovan Solano and Ha-Seong Kim have passable numbers vs. LHP. I still won’t be going out of my way to avoid Jurickson Profar or Xander Bogaerts in stacks. While Profar does hit the ball on the ground more than we’d like, he’s also raked lefties to the tune of a .405 wOBA with a .210 ISO on the season.
Even with some areas of concern, the Padres are justifiable as the top stack on the slate. It’s still Coors, and I’m never going to be scared to attack Freeland. Plus, beyond the Astros, there aren’t a whole lot of other standout offenses on this slate. San Diego’s 13.3% stack pOWN% on DraftKings is actually lower than their 14.8% optimal rate. It’s a different story on FanDuel, where the Pads are projected for about 13% stack ownership next to an Opto% of just 7%.
PIVOT STACK
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