MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, July 15
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Saturday! We’ve got 10 games on the FD slate tonight, while DK is going with a 12-gamer that includes the latter halves of the SD-PHI and TB-KC doubleheaders. Coors Field and Great American Ballpark are in play on both sites, while we’ve also got some outstanding pitching worth paying up for. The decision points are pretty clear as a result, so it’ll be fascinating to see where the ownership ultimately goes.
How should we approach stacking bats tonight?
Chalk Stack – Yankees vs. Connor Seabold
The Yankees were quiet last night after a first-inning homer from Giancarlo Stanton, but they’re the top-projected offense again tonight in the same ballpark against Connor Seabold. New York’s 6.38 total is the highest on the night, and there’s still a lot to like here even with Aaron Judge still out of the mix.
Seabold’s numbers so far this season leave plenty to be desired. He’s pitched to a 6.65 ERA in his first year in Colorado alongside a 16.5% K-rate. A 6.9% walk rate isn’t terrible, but that’s really the only feather I can find in his otherwise barren cap. Opposing hitters have a 10% barrel rate against Seabold, and his flyball rate is about 15% higher than his groundball rate. Lefties have a .390 wOBA against him, while righties are at .366. He’s just the same mediocre pitcher against anyone that steps in the box.
Based on Seabold’s numbers, the Yankees would be a top-tier stack in any ballpark against him. Stanton (.249 ISO vs. RHP since 2022) is the headliner from a power standpoint, while Josh Donaldson, Franchy Cordero, and Billy McKinney all have ISOs of over .200 against righties so far this term. Gleyber Torres has the best bat-to-ball skills and the lowest strikeout rate in the lineup. Putting the ball in play typically leads to good things at Coors, so Gleyber’s higher salaries around the industry are justifiable. Anthony Rizzo and Harrison Bader are steady producers in the heart of the order.
The Yankees’ relatively affordable salaries make them easy to stack, even on a slate with pricey pitching. They’re projecting to be particularly popular on FanDuel, with a slate-high 16.6% projected stack ownership. Their 10.4% opto% pales in comparison, so they’re projecting for negative leverage over there. The gap is smaller on DraftKings, where the Yanks are coming in with 10.9% projected stack ownership compared to a 7.7% shot at being optimal.
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