MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, July 20th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
For the first time in quite some time, the Saturday main slate is of the evening variety. The sites are doing things slightly differently, as FanDuel decided to leave the STL/ATL game off of the board. So we’ve got 8 games to deal with over there and 9 on DraftKings. This is another pitching-heavy Coors slate, and the only teams with implied run totals of over 5 are once again the Giants and Royals. Other obvious stacks are difficult to come by as a result, so we could see concentrated ownership on those 2 teams for the second night in a row.
Let’s sort through it all together.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, July 20th
CHALKY STACKS
Giants at Kyle Freeland
Royals vs. Jonathan Cannon
The Giants were sluggish in their series opener in Denver last night, as they mustered all of 3 runs against Cal Quantrill and friends. Tonight, they’ll face off against noted punching bag Kyle Freeland, a guy it feels like we’ve been stacking against for, oh, the last decade or so.
Freeland used to be able to generate ground balls, but he isn’t even that guy anymore. His GB% this season is a shade south of 44%, and he hasn’t cracked 45% in that regard since 2021. His ERA is sitting at a career-worst 6.00, though his 4.68 SIERA isn’t quite as ugly. Strikeouts (15.8%) have never been a major part of his game, though his walk rate (6.8%) and barrel rate (7.5%) aren’t atrocious so far in ’24.
For what it’s worth, the Giants also profile much better against lefties than they do against righties. On the season, San Francisco’s projected lineup tonight boasts a collective .189 ISO with a .340 wOBA against southpaws. Things thin out a bit once you get past the first few hitters, but Jorge Soler (10.2%), Heliot Ramos (23.8%), and Matt Chapman (13.9%) lead the way in terms of barrel rate vs. LHP.
Freeland has legitimately impressive numbers this season against his fellow lefties. He’s whiffed them at a 30% clip with a ground ball rate pushing 54%. We’re only dealing with a 10-start sample, but it’s something. Righties are a different story, of course. They’ve smacked him around to the tune of a .368 wOBA with all 5 of the home runs he’s conceded. His K rate plunges to just 14.1%, while the ground balls trail off to around 42%.
Soler, Ramos, and Chapman are the headliners in any Giants stack, and I’m perfectly fine just mini-stacking those 3 even at ownership tonight. Wilmer Flores has a track record of success vs. LHP even if he’s struggled so far this season, while Luis Matos (.195 ISO) has quietly shown a solid power stroke from the right side. Thairo Estrada is fine assuming he draws a favorable lineup spot, but I’m not too geeked to get to the bottom of the order hitters (Tyler Fitzgerald and Curt Casali) if they’re going to be popular.
San Francisco’s 18.6% projected ownership is easily the highest of any stack on FanDuel, but they’re also not priced appropriately at all over there. As a result, their optimal rate (20%) is even higher. The Giants are a bit tougher to jam in at their salaries on DK, but we’re still getting positive projected leverage. They’re coming in around 13% pOWN% on DraftKings with about a 14.9% optimal rate.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
