MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday (July 29)
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We usually have split slates on Saturday, but today is an exception. We’ve got a beefy 13-gamer on the board for tonight, which means ownership will likely be fairly spread out on the hitting side of things. There aren’t too many high-end pitchers toeing the rubber tonight, either, which naturally gives us a lot to like from a stacking standpoint.
Below are my favorite stacks on Saturday’s slate. If you’re looking for extra insight or just want to talk baseball with your favorite RG personalities, head on over to the MLB channel in the RG Discord.
Chalk Stack – Twins vs. Jordan Lyles
We’ve got Coors Field in play again tonight, but the A’s and Rockies aren’t headlining our current projected ownership. That honor belongs to the Twins, though they’re still not necessarily too chalky. As of about 11 am ET, Minnesota is checking in with 7.91% stack pOWN on DraftKings and 9.06% stack pOWN on FanDuel.
This offense was shut down by Brady Singer and company last night, but tonight they’ll face an even more vulnerable righty in Jordan Lyles. On the heels of a couple of decent outings, Lyles came back down to earth in his most recent start against the Yankees. On the season, the veteran has a 16.6% strikeout rate, a 6.19 ERA, and he’s allowed 22 home runs. Lyles is also yielding a barrel rate of over 10%.
He’s been almost equally bad against hitters from both sides of the plate, and he has no semblance of groundball ability. On another hot night in Kansas City, the flyballs will be flying with a little extra gusto.
The Twins have struck out a ton (27%) against right-handed pitching this season, but there isn’t much swing-and-miss risk in this matchup. When they make contact, they tend to do damage. Minnesota’s projected lineup has a .194 ISO with a .345 wOBA against right-handed pitching. The only hitters with sub-10% barrel rates are Alex Kirilloff (7.3%) and Christian Vazquez (0.6%), though Kirilloff’s middling numbers can be blamed on some early-season injuries.
Byron Buxton should also be back in there tonight after a night off yesterday, which brings even more thunder into the equation. Even as the most popular projected stack on the slate, there still isn’t a single hitter here projected for double-digit ownership in large-field tournaments on DraftKings. Buxton, Edouard Julien, and Carlos Correa are the only guys drawing more than 10% pOWN on FanDuel.
The Twins’ opto% on both sites is about even with their expected ownership, so coming in around the field is a logical approach with this stack.
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