MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, June 15th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
DraftKings and FanDuel are doing things differently on this fine Saturday, but what else is new? DK opted for a reasonable 7-game slate starting at 4:05 ET. FD decided to tack on 3 earlier games, so their docket kicks off at 2:10 ET. For the purposes of this article, I’ll limit the discussion to the 7 games shared by both sites. The pitching looks dicey to say the least on this slate, though we also don’t have a single offense with an implied total of at least 5 runs. Fun! This does mean we’re going to see some potentially dicey chalk on the pitching side, which creates natural leverage opportunities with the bats.
Let’s dig into the stacks.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, June 15th
CHALKY STACK
Braves vs. Ryan Pepiot
The Coors Field game isn’t until later, and it’s admittedly difficult to identify any sort of chalk stack this afternoon. A bunch of individual hitters are projected to pull ownership, but there isn’t one team looking like it’ll be overwhelmingly popular. The Braves look like they might be starting to break out of their month-long funk, and we could see them garner some ownership today at home against Ryan Pepiot.
This game has some rain risk – Roth has it as a YELLOW in the morning weather report – but it’s also hotter than hell in Atlanta today. It’s going to get up to 97 degrees during scheduled game hours, and it won’t be getting down below 90 until 8 PM. That makes for some excellent hitting weather, even if Atlanta’s matchup against Ryan Pepiot isn’t ideal.
Pepiot has actually been terrific, with a strikeout rate pushing 30% alongside a 3.16 SIERA. The one potential red flag here is he’s a pretty extreme fly-ball pitcher, and fly balls on a warm afternoon in Atlanta should be really flying. Pepiot has surrendered 8 dongs already this season, so it’s certainly a part of his game.
Even if the results have been inconsistent, the meat of the Braves’ lineup is still barreling it up against righties. Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Sean Murphy are all sporting double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP, while Marcell Ozuna leads the squad with an 18.8% clip. Ozzie Albies and Adam Duvall haven’t quite lived up to expectations, but we know both possess no shortage of power as well.
The big bats here won’t come cheap, but guys like Duvall, Murphy, Jarred Kelenic, and J.P. Martinez help offset the overall cost of the stack. With Pepiot’s overall profile, however, I’m not convinced the Braves are a must-stack team by any means, even in single entry. Atlanta is projected to pull about 10% ownership on DraftKings, while their optimal rate is just around 8%.
They’re more difficult to ignore on FanDuel, where several of the top hitters are underpriced. Atlanta is projected for around 9% stack pOWN% on FanDuel, yet their 19% optimal rate is the highest on the slate.
PIVOT STACK
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