MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, June 22nd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
This is one of those beautiful, harmonious Saturdays in which the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates both line up perfectly. We’re looking at 8-gamers kicking off around 4:05 ET and all 8 games starting within 5 minutes of one another. Lovely stuff indeed, because we’ll have every lineup well ahead of lock. We don’t have Coors Field or the gusty Wrigley wind on this slate either, so the offenses look jumbled at the top. The game at Great American Ballpark figures to produce some offense, so it looks like that’s where we’ll start from an ownership standpoint.
How should we stack ‘em up on Saturday?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, June 22nd
CHALK STACK
Red Sox at Frankie Montas
It’s wild how much better the Red Sox look when they face righties. In fact, this lineup is downright imposing against right-handed pitchers, while it’s the highest strikeout lineup in the league against lefties. That tracks considering Andrew Abbott managed to pile up 10 Ks against these jamokes just last night. Against RHP this season, however, today’s projected Boston lineup boasts a collective .353 wOBA, a .196 ISO, a 9.6% barrel rate, and they’re only striking out about 22% of the time.
The Sox look like they’ll have 7 lefties in there today with Wilyer Abreu due to return from the injured list. They’ll be taking their swings against Frankie Montas, who simply isn’t the ace he was during his pre-injury days in Oakland. So far in his first year in Cincy, Montas has an 18.5% strikeout rate, a walk rate pushing 10%, and a pedestrian 4.70 SIERA.
Montas has done a decent job of dodging barrels – 5.9% – and 7 homers allowed across 13 starts isn’t egregious. It’s his numbers against LHBs that are worrisome, particularly in a matchup in which the Red Sox will trot a bunch of lefties out there against him. Left-handed hitters are sporting a .369 wOBA against Montas, while they’ve accounted for 5 of the 7 home runs he’s served up. They’re also striking out just about 16% of the time while they’re walking nearly 12% of the time.
Oh, and Great American Ballpark of course is the most homer-friendly park in baseball. It’s also a hot afternoon in Cincinnati with temperatures north of 90 degrees all day long.
Anyone swinging a bat for Boston is viable in a stack, but the lefties are the natural standouts. Rafael Devers (13.9% barrels), Enmanuel Valdez (13.6%), Jarren Duran (9.5%), and Abreu (14.3%) are the standouts with the highest barrel rates this season vs. righties, while Tyler O’Neill (15.5%) has fared juuuuust fine against same-handed pitching. O’Neill’s only real issue is strikeouts, but Montas is still only whiffing RHBs at a 21% clip.
David Hamilton is a strong play with a major speed component to his game. The only lefties who haven’t hit for much power are Masataka Yoshida and Dominic Smith, but at least they’re both cheap. The Red Sox are projected to pull around 15% stack ownership on DK, while their optimal rate is actually slightly higher at 16%. Over on FanDuel, where half of the lineup is under $3,000, Boston’s optimal rate (31%) is more than double their pOWN% (14.5%).
CO-CHALK STACK
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