MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, June 3
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The 8-game 4:05 ET slate headlines this MLB Saturday. We’ve got what is shaping up to be one popular game in Cincinnati, though an 8-gamer means we have plenty of alternatives out there to consider from a stacking standpoint. This should be a fun one, especially given the lack of clarity on the pitching side of things.
Let’s go!
Chalk Stacks – Brewers vs. Graham Ashcraft, Reds vs. Colin Rea
Great American Ballpark is the best hitter’s park on the slate even without taking the weather into consideration. It’s going to be in the 90s today in Cincinnati, so the ball should be flying with a little more gusto than usual.
The Brewers and Reds aren’t the most dynamic offenses, but they do both have 5.25 implied run totals in this one. That really tells you all you need to know. The visitors will be taking their hacks against Graham Ashcraft, whose underlying numbers aren’t quite as bad as his surface stats. An 18% strikeout rate isn’t scaring anybody, nor is a 9% walk rate or a 5.55 ERA. His 4.3 SIERA is a little better, though, and this is a guy that keeps the ball on the ground. Ashcraft’s 47.8% groundball rate this season is respectable, even if it’s below his career 52.5% mark.
The Brewers also hit the ball on the ground, which makes this an imperfect on-paper matchup. Milwaukee’s projected lineup has a collective 47% groundball rate vs. RHPs since the start of last season, and they’re up to 48.5% so far in 2023. They’ll be putting the ball in play against a guy that doesn’t miss bats, but it’s at least a little scary to stack the Brewers if they’re going to be popular in this spot.
Rowdy Tellez is easy to love as one of the few hitters that’ll hit the ball in the air, while Christian Yelich looks decent enough out of the leadoff spot. Ashcraft has flashed a pretty stark reverse split early in his career, which makes Brian Anderson and Owen Miller stand out as values for your stacks. Milwaukee projects for nearly 13% stack ownership on DK with a 9.7% chance at being optimal. They’re a bit more palatable on FD with 10.9% ownership and a 9.5% opto%.
The Reds’ lineup doesn’t have as much name value, but this is probably an underrated offense at this point. Colin Rea has put together a few decent starts, but his numbers across the board are about as average as it gets. He’s another guy keeping the ball on the ground (50%), but the Reds aren’t pounding the ball into the dirt nearly as frequently as the Brewers are.
TJ Friedl is dealing with a hamstring issue, but he’s a stellar value around the industry if he resumes his leadoff duties today. Matt McLain (.348 wOBA), Jonathan India (.359), and Jake Fraley (.352) have all posted impressive numbers vs. RHPs this season. The top power threat here is Spencer Steer (.189 ISO), who grades out as another useful value.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
