MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, March 30th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy weekend! We’ve got some matinee baseball on the first Saturday of the 2024 season, but we’re here to talk about the 6-game main slate scheduled to start at 7:05 ET. We’ve got some potential weather concerns – especially on the west coast – so there’s no guarantee that this will remain a 6-game slate depending on what happens in LA and San Diego.
With that said, I’ll leave the meteorology to Mr. Kevin Roth. I’ll write up Top Stacks as if the questionable games will be good to go. Let’s get stackin’.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, March 30th
Chalk Stacks – Diamondbacks vs. Austin Gomber
Something tells me stacking against Rockies’ pitching is going to be A Thing in 2024 regardless of whether they’re playing at Coors Field. The D-Backs have been quite popular on both slates on which they’ve appeared thus far, and they’re projecting for significant ownership again ahead of their matchup tonight against lefty Austin Gomber.
Gomber hasn’t been a particularly successful starter regardless of setting since joining the Rockies as a piece of the Nolan Arenado trade a couple of years ago. Last season, the veteran finished with a 5.50 ERA and a career-worst 5.24 SIERA. Whatever semblance of groundball ability he flashed earlier in his career seems to have all but evaporated, as he generated just 41.6% groundballs a season ago. His strikeout rate dwindled to 14.4%, also the worst mark of his brief MLB tenure.
So, stacking against this guy sounds like a pretty good plan, especially with an offense as deep and talented as the one Arizona is trotting out this season. This group generally profiles better against right-handed pitching, but power righties like Christian Walker (.385 wOBA vs. LHP in 2023), Eugenio Suarez (.333), Lourdes Gurriel (.356), Gabriel Moreno (.399), and Ketel Marte (.379) will be standouts in any DBax stacks this evening.
You’ll have to try and get different elsewhere if you’re stacking those 5, as they’re likely to be the most popular pieces. Corbin Carroll struggled a bit (.300 wOBA, .082 ISO) against same-handed pitching a season ago, but he could certainly improve in that regard entering his 2nd full season. It’s also fair to assume he won’t be facing lefties all night long, as Jalen Beeks is the only other southpaw behind Gomber in that Colorado bullpen. Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo are a couple of other hitters projected to hit lower in the lineup that likely won’t be super chalky.
We’re getting negative projected leverage with the D-Backs tonight considering they’re likely to pull so much ownership. They’re projected for about 18% stack pOWN% compared to a 16.9% optimal rate on DraftKings. On FanDuel, we’ve got 15% stack projected ownership and a 13.3% opto rate for Arizona stacks.
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