MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, September 16

Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!

MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.

In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.

As is usually the case on days with doubleheaders, DraftKings and FanDuel have taken different approaches to their respective main slates. DK decided to include Game 2 of the Giants-Rockies double-dip, which is obviously noteworthy because that makes it a Coors slate. FanDuel left the game off, which leaves us with a 9-game docket over there. For the purposes of today’s Top Stacks, I’ll be covering only the games the two sites have in common, but San Francisco and Colorado are clearly among the best targets on DK with Kyle Freeland and Ross Stripling on the mound there, of course.

Even without that game, there’s still a lot to like out there tonight from a stacking standpoint on a slate that features quite a few attackable arms. Let’s find some leverage with our bats, shall we?

Chalk Stack – Twins at Touki Toussaint

Even on DK where we have Coors, the Twins are popping as the stack with the highest projected ownership as of this morning. They went off for 10 runs last night – which isn’t something that’ll ever decrease a team’s ownership – and they get another tasty matchup tonight against Touki Toussaint. The Twins also get a nice park upgrade going into Chicago, which is among the most homer-friendly parks in all the land.

Toussaint has bounced around over the years, and so far this season he’s the same guy he’s always been. There are some strikeouts in his arsenal (22%) along with a decently high groundball rate (50.3%), but the walks (15.8%) are out of control, so to speak. Toussaint’s ERA and SIERA are both well north of 5.00, and Minnesota is trotting out a deep and powerful lineup these days.

I don’t know Royce Lewis personally, but it’s fair to assume he loves nothing more than hittin’ grand slams, as he’s done it 4 times in the last 18 games. He’s been a bit injury-prone, but when healthy, the numbers have been terrific against right-handed pitching (.399 wOBA, .242 ISO, 14.2% barrels). Lewis has a .909 OPS this season, which would put him in the top-10 in the sport if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Clearly, he’s a core play in all formats.

Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Matt Wallner are the other Twins with ISOs of over .200 and wOBAs well over .300 against righties on the year. Touki generates quite a few more strikeouts (28%) and groundballs (57%) against righties, and all 4 of those guys happen to hit from the left side of the plate. Ditto for Alex Kirilloff and Willi Castro, who are both quite cheap around the industry. The least impressive numbers of the group oddly belong to the team’s most expensive player – Carlos Correa – but he’s also affordable these days at $4,000 on DK and $2,900 on FD.

Ownership will certainly be a factor here. Given the matchup, it’s fair to wonder whether our current pOWN may even be undershooting the Twins a bit. Minnesota is projected for about 12% stack pOWN on DK, while they’re up in the 15.5% range on FD. The stack has a 10.8% shot at being optimal on DK and a 15% chance on FanDuel.

Expensive Stack – Phillies at Miles Mikolas

The Twins pulling such significant ownership likely means most of the other stacks will come in at reasonable levels. That includes the Phillies, who have a modest 4.62 implied run total in St. Louis tonight, where they’ll take their hacks at right-hander Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has flashed the same elite control we’ve seen in previous seasons, but there are some red flags elsewhere for the 35-year-old.

His 9.1% barrel rate is the highest of his big-league career. His 15.4% strikeout rate is his lowest since a brief cameo with Texas in 2014, while his current 38.9% groundball rate is well below his career 45.3% mark. Mikolas’ SIERA is also pushing 5 these days, and he’s allowed at least 7 hits in 6 of his last 7 outings. At this point, he’s just a guy out there throwing baseballs and getting knocked around.

The Phillies are expensive – as we should expect for a lineup laden with All-Stars – but that should help to drive their ownership down. Mikolas’ splits have been almost identical this season. His strikeout rate is around 15% to hitters from both sides, while he’s allowed 22 home runs – 11 to lefties and 11 more to righties. If you want to nitpick, he has generated a few more groundballs (41%) vs. righties than lefties (36.6%).

Regardless, we’re stacking everyone here. Trea Turner has been the hottest hitter on the planet after months of being the exact opposite of that, while Bryce Harper (13.8% barrels, .392 wOBA) is finally starting to hit for consistent power coming off of his elbow surgery. I will gladly take my chances with high-strikeout, high-power bats like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos against a pitcher who won’t be missing any bats. Bryson Stott and JT Realmuto help you fill the thin second base and catcher positions in your stacks, while Brandon Marsh and Jake Cave are a couple of cheapies with the platoon advantage to consider.

Clearly, there’s a lot to like here, and the PlateIQ projections agree. The Phillies are projecting for positive leverage as a stack on both sites. They’re coming in with just 3.88% stack pOWN on DK compared to a 5.28% opto%. On FanDuel, they’re about 7% owned with an 8.3% chance of being optimal.

Max Leverage – Rays at Grayson Rodriguez

Sometimes, the best way to get direct leverage against the field is by stacking against a popular pitcher. This is generally something I do more on smaller slates with more concentrated ownership on the top arms, but it’s always a viable way to build in MLB GPPs. Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez isn’t projecting to be super popular on FD (6.29%), but he’s gaining some traction on DK (16.6%) thanks to the multi-pitcher format.

Rodriguez has shown flashes of brilliance so far in his rookie season, but he’s been plagued by a lack of consistency. His 4.13 SIERA is more impressive than his 4.88 ERA, but the walk and barrel rates are both up over 8%. G-Rod has also yielded 16 homers through 20 games, and tonight’s matchup at home against the surging Rays isn’t a particularly easy one. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup owns a .342 wOBA, a .187 ISO, and a healthy 8.8% barrel rate collectively against right-handed pitching on the year.

Stacking bats at Camden Yards is generally less appealing now that the dimensions have made this ballpark hell for right-handed power bats, and the Rays’ 3.89 total here is among the lowest on the board. Still, this is a chance to stack a legitimately talented offense at what should be zero ownership. Isaac Paredes at a cheap $3,000 FD salary is the only bat projecting for more than 10% pOWN on either site, as of this morning.

Paredes’ .268 ISO vs. RHPs leads the team, though he’s far from the only Ray doing some slugging. Luke Raley (.252), Brandon Lowe (.228), and Josh Lowe (.215) have all hit for power, and those 3 will all have the platoon edge against Rodriguez. The ballpark is still a great one for lefty power, too. Yandy Diaz is in the Royce Lewis .900+ OPS club, while Jonathan Aranda and Christian Bethancourt are both sub-$3,000 on both sites.

The Rays’ opto% on DraftKings (6.9%) is about double their pOWN (3.5%), while the gap is a bit smaller on FD (8% opto%, 6.1% pOWN).

Good luck tonight!

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