MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, September 16
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
As is usually the case on days with doubleheaders, DraftKings and FanDuel have taken different approaches to their respective main slates. DK decided to include Game 2 of the Giants-Rockies double-dip, which is obviously noteworthy because that makes it a Coors slate. FanDuel left the game off, which leaves us with a 9-game docket over there. For the purposes of today’s Top Stacks, I’ll be covering only the games the two sites have in common, but San Francisco and Colorado are clearly among the best targets on DK with Kyle Freeland and Ross Stripling on the mound there, of course.
Even without that game, there’s still a lot to like out there tonight from a stacking standpoint on a slate that features quite a few attackable arms. Let’s find some leverage with our bats, shall we?
Chalk Stack – Twins at Touki Toussaint
Even on DK where we have Coors, the Twins are popping as the stack with the highest projected ownership as of this morning. They went off for 10 runs last night – which isn’t something that’ll ever decrease a team’s ownership – and they get another tasty matchup tonight against Touki Toussaint. The Twins also get a nice park upgrade going into Chicago, which is among the most homer-friendly parks in all the land.
Toussaint has bounced around over the years, and so far this season he’s the same guy he’s always been. There are some strikeouts in his arsenal (22%) along with a decently high groundball rate (50.3%), but the walks (15.8%) are out of control, so to speak. Toussaint’s ERA and SIERA are both well north of 5.00, and Minnesota is trotting out a deep and powerful lineup these days.
I don’t know Royce Lewis personally, but it’s fair to assume he loves nothing more than hittin’ grand slams, as he’s done it 4 times in the last 18 games. He’s been a bit injury-prone, but when healthy, the numbers have been terrific against right-handed pitching (.399 wOBA, .242 ISO, 14.2% barrels). Lewis has a .909 OPS this season, which would put him in the top-10 in the sport if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Clearly, he’s a core play in all formats.
Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Matt Wallner are the other Twins with ISOs of over .200 and wOBAs well over .300 against righties on the year. Touki generates quite a few more strikeouts (28%) and groundballs (57%) against righties, and all 4 of those guys happen to hit from the left side of the plate. Ditto for Alex Kirilloff and Willi Castro, who are both quite cheap around the industry. The least impressive numbers of the group oddly belong to the team’s most expensive player – Carlos Correa – but he’s also affordable these days at $4,000 on DK and $2,900 on FD.
Ownership will certainly be a factor here. Given the matchup, it’s fair to wonder whether our current pOWN may even be undershooting the Twins a bit. Minnesota is projected for about 12% stack pOWN on DK, while they’re up in the 15.5% range on FD. The stack has a 10.8% shot at being optimal on DK and a 15% chance on FanDuel.
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