MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, September 2
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Saturday brings us a solid 11-game slate with no shortage of appealing options on the hitting side. The Blue Jays will once again stand out against Ty Blach in Colorado, though whether they’re actually the best stack on the board is debatable. We’ve got plenty of alternatives with 22 teams on the slate, and the pitching pool is considerably shallower than the one we had last night. That should lead to condensed ownership on the pitching side and some natural #leverage opportunities for stacking.
So, who are we stacking up tonight?
Chalky Coors Stack – Blue Jays at Ty Blach
The Blue Jays made the most of their first Coors Field experience of the year, as they banged out 17 hits en route to 13 runs in their victory last night. The win came at a cost, however, as Danny Jansen left the game with a fractured finger.
Toronto’s 6.75 implied run total tonight against Ty Blach is pretty easily the highest on the board. The veteran owns an impressive 3.94 ERA on the year, but his 5.20 SIERA tells a different story. Blach’s 12.5% strikeout rate is comically low, and he hasn’t been particularly proficient at keeping the ball on the ground (39%). One thing he hasn’t done is beat himself with walks (5.8%), but there’s just nothing sustainable about his ERA. Four of Blach’s last five outings have come on the road, which at least partially explains his decent game logs.
Taking Jansen, Matt Chapman, and Bo Bichette out of the Jays’ lineup leaves them looking a little thinner than usual, but there’s still a lot to like. Something tells me Davis Schneider can’t keep mashing to the tune of a .644 wOBA and a .667 ISO against lefties, but he has been phenomenal since joining the big club. He’s already expensive around the industry and obviously due for regression, but that regression doesn’t have to arrive tonight.
George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero are Toronto’s most decorated right-handed sluggers, though neither of them has hit for much power vs. left-handed pitching so far this year. They’re still core plays in any Jays stack, but I’ll be avoiding both as popular one-offs. Mason McCoy and Ernie Clement are not household names, but they’re both cheap and projected to start tonight. Alejandro Kirk is also coming at a nice discount from Jansen at catcher.
As of now, Toronto projects for pretty significant negative leverage around the industry. Their 5.6% opto% pales in comparison to their 11.4% stack ownership on DraftKings. TOR’s 4.1% opto% is about half their 8.3% stack pOWN over on FanDuel.
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