MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, April 14th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got one heckuva Sunday cooking in the sports world! We have a loaded MLB docket, the all-important final day of the NBA’s regular season, and the Masters winding down to the final 18. If you consider UFC 300 wrapping up after midnight on the East Coast, we’re already off to a roaring start!
Let’s dig into some stacks and finish the weekend with a bang.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, April 14th
Blue Jays vs. Kyle Freeland
Freeland has pitched 3 games in 2024. He was absolutely annihilated during his first 2 starts of 2024. And maybe that’s being generous. He was blasted for 17 runs on 17 hits in his first 2 starts, and they were on the road! Freeland wasn’t even pitching at the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field.
But in the most baseball-type-of-thing ever, Freeland came home to Coors in his 3rd start against Arizona and somehow survived.
Looking under the hood, my guess is Freeland was lucky against Arizona- he’s just not very good. His xERA is over 8.00 and his FIP is well over 7.00 in 2024. Last season, Freeland finished with ratios well above 5.00 in both categories, which is obviously better but still pretty bad.
Although the Blue Jays haven’t been fantastic this season, they’re an extremely tough draw for the Southpaw. Freeland owned a .311/.355/.545 slash vs. RHB last season while coughing up 26 home runs.
And we can’t blame the Coors effect for everything. Away from Denver, RHB still slashed .306/.343/.577 against him. This Jays’ lineup has been littered with right-handed bats across the last couple of seasons that can do quite a bit of damage vs. left-handed pitchers.
Toronto’s ISO vs. LHP didn’t pop off the page last season, but the Jays ranked top 5 in batting average and OBP while ranking 11th in wOBA. I still give hitters such as Bo Bichette, Justin Turner, and Vladimir Guerrero a huge upper hand in this matchup. All of them have hard-hit rates better than 55% vs. LHB since the beginning of last season. Although George Springer hasn’t been elite vs. lefties, you can’t forget about him at the top (but he’s not a top priority).
Davis Schneider can mow LHP if given the opportunity on Sunday as well. In a small-ish batted-ball event sample size, he has a ludicrous 33% barrel rate against LHB dating back to the start of 2023. He’s one of my favorite plays, assuming he starts.
Our Top Stacks tool is still populating early this morning. While FanDuel’s numbers are still being crunched, Toronto is checking in at the highest pOWN%, with the highest OPTO%, and the 4th-highest rating on DraftKings. My guess is that the public sees Colorado and Freeland on the schedule, and the pOWN% gap might be larger between the Jays and the next closest team.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
