MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, April 2nd
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on the collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
On some slates, we’ll look at five or even eight teams. Smaller slates are tricky in that almost everyone is in play sometimes. Other times, only three or four are worth noting.
Chalk Stack — Braves vs. Mackenzie Gore
The Braves have been very popular to start the season and the field is returning here on Sunday afternoon against lefty Mackenzie Gore.
Gore hasn’t pitched much pro ball. Only 87 IP across Triple-A and the majors in 2022 after only 34 MiLB IP in 2021. But he was a big-time protect and shouldn’t be a gas can. Only 0.90 HR/9 allowed in his 70 MLB IP last season with a normal 9.2% HR/FB rate.
Where we could see a problem is his 9.7% barrel rate allowed over 77.4% contact rate against an immensely talented Braves lineup. Gore had a 45.4% hard-hit rate and the Braves should field five guys with hard-hit rates over 43% against lefties since 2022: Austin Riley (53.2%); Travis d’Arnaud (51.8%); Sean Murphy (50.0%); Orlando Arcia (43.8%); and Ronald Acuna (43.6%). Add the team-leading 44.0% flyball rate of Ozzie Albies against lefties over that stretch and the 39.0% rate of Matt Olson and the stacks build themselves.
We’re working with small samples, so I’m not sure this is good chalk. With a #WrigleyWindGame this afternoon, we don’t have to go to the Braves in any format, but if we do, we’ll need leverage to come from pitching and/or our supplemental secondary stack. I’m probably not playing the Braves in single-entry and small contests. Gore is exploitable, but we should want worse power prevention or a better ballpark to eat chalk like this. That said, Gore is a regression candidate one way or the other. If you’re betting on the other, you’re in the right place to build your Braves lineup with some leverage.