MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday (July 30)
LB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
DraftKings elected to continue to omit Coors from their main slate, so there’s a slight difference. But the chalk should be predictable regardless of the site. What’s interesting about the Guardians as chalk is that no one really wants to play them, so their pOWN% can be volatile. I think we should bank on them as chalk and move accordingly. What’s most interesting about this slate is that pricing is projected to cap the Braves on a slate where paying up for pitching will be the chalk play. Right off the bat, I’m looking more toward Kenta Maeda and Steven Matz over Justin Verlander and Jesus Luzardo so I can be on the right side of Braves ownership. This approach won’t be contrarian per se, but our leverage play is gonna make up for that.
Chalk Stack – Guardians at Michael Kopech
Michael Kopech has just been dreadful. He’s a strong strikeout pitcher, but the Guardians pretty much never strike out. On the flip side, he has allowed 5.36 BB/9 and 2.03 HR/9 on a 14.6% barrel rate. And this is one of the best home run ballparks in baseball.
Earlier this season, it was rough to stack the Guardians. Mike Zunino couldn’t hit anything, Josh Bell got too many groundballs, and Andres Gimenez came back down to Earth. At this point in the season, we’ve seen a power breakout for Josh Naylor, who has had a .210 ISO against righties, on top of the .388 wOBA and .198 ISO for Jose Ramirez.
I’m personally still off of the Guardians for today, though. At this ownership, we should lean toward full stacking, and full stacking is still a bit of a mess here. Kopech has given up that power to both sides of the plate, so no one is off of the table. It’s just that once we add in Bo Naylor and Gimenez to Ramirez and Naylor, do we really wanna dig deeper? Kopech is so bad that it doesn’t really matter, so we can do it, but there are better pivots with lower ownership on this slate.
Stacking the Guards as chalk is just attacking the pitcher and the ballpark. Totally fine, but we don’t have to go there, especially on FanDuel where Coors Field is projected to go under-owned.
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