MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, June 2
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Sunday! We’ve got the usual big Sunday afternoon MLB DFS slate on tap with a little bit of everything. Like yesterday afternoon, it looks like there will be a clear-cut SP1 at the top projecting for massive ownership. This time, it’s Freddy Peralta at home against the White Sox. This otherwise looks like a jumbled slate of offenses without any obvious chalk jumping out as the best of the bunch. Let’s figure out how to approach it.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, June 2nd
POSSIBLE CHALK STACK?
Brewers vs. Nick Nastrini
The Brewers are the team currently projected to pull the most stack ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s hardly overwhelming, though. We’re talking about 10% stack pOWN% on DK with about 8.5% stack pOWN% on FanDuel. Milwaukee’s optimal rates are slightly higher on both sites, so there’s a chance for positive leverage even with what may be the most popular offense on the board.
The Brew Crew is set to face right-hander Nick Nastrini, who may be the worst pitcher taking the mound today. He’s only taken 4 turns in an MLB rotation in his entire life, and whatever strikeout stuff he’s flashed in the minors hasn’t yet translated. He’s whiffed only 15.3% of big league hitters, while his walk rate is sitting at a laughably high 20%. Nastrini’s 6.84 SIERA makes his 9.92 ERA look quite deserved, and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s served up 4 homers through those 4 games.
So yeah, the Brewers look pretty appealing in this spot. I don’t think we have to worry ourselves too much with splits with a pitcher struggling this horribly, but Nastrini’s body of work against lefties is really something to behold. He’s only faced 30 of them, but woof. He’s allowed a .496 wOBA with a 6.7% strikeout rate and a (checks notes) 36.7% walk rate. Walks won’t win you a GPP, but the potential for huge innings is there if Nastrini is constantly dealing with traffic on the base paths.
Milwaukee’s 4.96 implied run total is among the highest on the board. The Brewers have also done impressive work against righties all year. William Contreras (.409 wOBA), Christian Yelich (.391), and Willy Adames (.356) always stand out as primary damage-doers for this lineup, but Joey Ortiz (.426), Rhys Hoskins (.363), and Brice Turang (.345) have also fared extremely well on the year. Jake Bauers (.169 ISO vs. RHP) has power from the left side, while Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick are lefties that offer stolen base upside in any matchup.
Given Nastrini’s woeful numbers, it’s easy to see why we could see some ownership on Milwaukee this afternoon.
PIVOT STACK
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