MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, June 23rd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Sunday! We have nine games on the board for Sunday, though the TBR-PIT clash in Pittsburgh looks like it could have some weather trouble. We’ll see what happens. Once again, we’ve got warm weather all over the place with particularly hot conditions in the northeast. New York is dealing with temps in the mid-90s, so the ball should be flying there. The hitting chalk doesn’t look as obvious as it did yesterday with teams like the Phillies and Red Sox, so stack ownership could be a bit more spread out today. This slate is also rich with aces, including Paul Skenes in the weather game and Max Scherzer set to make his 2024 debut.
Let’s dive right in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, June 23rd
CHALK STACKS
Blue Jays at Triston McKenzie
Rangers vs. Alec Marsh
The Blue Jays are currently projected to be the highest-owned stack on this slate with a handful of bats around 20% ownership each. The full stack won’t be quite that popular, of course, but they do get a nice park upgrade going into hitter-friendly Cleveland. They’ll face right-hander Triston McKenzie, who’s still pitching through ligament damage in his elbow.
This isn’t a guy we’ve traditionally gone out of our way to pick on, but the results just haven’t been there for McKenzie this season. His strikeout rate is hovering around just 21%, while his walk rate is up to an ugly 13.5%. McKenzie’s 5.07 SIERA makes his middling 4.48 ERA actually look lucky. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, which isn’t ideal on a hot day in Cleveland. He’s surrendered 15 home runs through 14 outings alongside a barrel rate a shade south of 12%.
While he’s pitched like an ace in the past, McKenzie is pitching now like a guy we can stack against with confidence. He’s flashed a bit more strikeout ability against righties (26.1%) than he has against lefties (15.9%) on the year, and, unfortunately, Toronto will be without its best LHB in Daulton Varsho today. This offense is otherwise extremely heavy on righties, with Addison Barger and Kevin Kiermaier being the lone lefties in the projected order.
The Jays have been a very low-strikeout group (20.6%) vs. RHP, so I’m not too concerned. Right-handed bats are sporting a .353 wOBA at McKenzie’s expense. Vladimir Guerrero (13.5% barrels) is still hitting the ball hard, and I like his chances of hitting the ball hard and in the air in this matchup. Davis Schneider (11.5%) and Danny Jansen (9.2%) have the other noteworthy barrel rates. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner are a couple of cheapies projected to hit 1-2 in the lineup, while George Springer has struggled to the point that he’s now incredibly cheap around the industry. Orelvis Martinez is another punt worth a look at $2,000 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel.
Toronto’s optimal rates of 13% on DK and 12% on FD are a bit lower than their projected stack ownership, but still among the highest Opto rates on the board today.
The Rangers will take their swings against Alec Marsh. You may remember Marsh from his last start when he was extremely questionable chalk against the A’s in Oakland. He proceeded to get his face punched in.
Marsh’s overall numbers don’t make him look like a gas can, but he has a career 4.20 SIERA and a 10% barrel rate allowed at the MLB level. The strikeout and walk numbers are about average. This is another pitcher with a fly ball lean, so he’s naturally going to serve up some dingers.
The Rangers’ bats haven’t been in top form this season, but I’m still happy to prioritize Corey Seager (.234 ISO, .376 wOBA, 15.6% barrels) in a matchup against just about any mediocre right-hander. Josh Smith (.374 wOBA, .165 ISO) has decent enough numbers from the left side, while Adolis Garcia (.186 ISO, 14.4% barrels) has passable season-long data despite his recent downturn in production.
The rest of the lineup isn’t great, but Marcus Semien is worth a spend by default if you’re stacking Texas. Nathaniel Lowe and Leody Taveras are decently cheap from the left side, while we’ve seen Wyatt Langford finally start to come around of late.
We’re getting positive leverage with the Rangers despite about 11% projected stack ownership on both sites. Texas’ Opto% is coming in at about 12% on DK and 14% on FD.
POWER STACK
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