MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, June 25
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The chalk is obvious this afternoon, and it’s all great chalk. I’m looking to absorb it and pair it with leverage today instead of crossing it off. We’ll look at that chalk, a great pivot, and two excellent leverage spots today.
Chalk Stacks – Braves at Levi Stoudt and Blue Jays vs. Luis Medina
It’s the Braves against a pitcher who probably sucks in one of the best home run ballparks in MLB history. This is as chalk as it gets, folks.
The Braves are power-packed from top to bottom. They face Levi Stoudt, who pretty much struggles with everything. Through 228.2 MiLB IP, he only had 8.5 K/9 to go with 3.7 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9. The high contact and shaky command have THE BAT projecting him to cough up 1.71 HR/9 for the rest of the season. The Great American Ball Park will contribute generously to that.
The Braves are in a spot where we treat them as Coors- stack them often in every way possible or fade them. It’s a really clunky spot because we want to have exposure to everyone, and that costs a lot of lineups.
We can easily swivel over the Blue Jays for single-entry, where we don’t want to dive into Braves chalk. They face Luis Medina and the terrible A’s bullpen in a great hitters park themselves: Rogers Centre.
Medina’s given up a 5.44 ERA and 2.06 HR/9 through 43.2 IP this season, isn’t really missing bats, and has given up 3.92 BB/9. His 8.2% barrel rate suggests some regression on the power end, but I don’t buy that anything significant is on the horizon until his command sets in.
Playing the Jays is similar to playing the Braves. Power-packed from top to bottom, so we just play them all and play them often.
In single-entry, we really shouldn’t play both together because we have to over-leverage at pitcher and that would still likely not be enough space between us and the field. In MME, playing 100-150 lineups, playing both teams together is site-specific. On DK, it’s a good shot to get exposure to Corbin Burnes, George Kirby, and Nathan Eovaldi. On FD, it’s a good shot to get exposure to those three and Eury Perez or even Yusei Kikuchi, as these are pitchers who have shots to break the slate and will be low-owned.
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