MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, June 9th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Sunday! We’re looking at a loaded 10-game slate this afternoon with a little bit of everything. This slate only features one offense with an implied run total of at least 5, and you’re probably not going to be too pleased to hear who it is. It does look like that one stack will be rather chalky, so it shouldn’t be too hard to find a way to get different with tournament builds this afternoon.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, June 9th
CHALKY STACK
Braves at DJ Herz
Ah yes, the Braves. It was always going to be the Braves, wasn’t it? Atlanta will continue their weekend series in DC this afternoon, and today they’ll face rookie left-hander DJ Herz. Herz is ranked by MLB.com as the Nationals’ No. 12 prospect, and this will be just his 2nd game at the big league level.
Herz posted some impressive strikeout numbers at the lower levels, but control is a very obvious area of concern. Across 9 Triple-A starts this season, the lefty had a 27.5% K rate with an ugly 19% walk rate. That tracks with the numbers he posted in several previous minor league seasons. In his MLB debut against the Mets 5 days ago, Herz yielded 4 runs on 7 hits with 3 Ks and a couple of walks in 4 innings of work.
Herz projects for a neutral split from the left side, so we don’t have to worry too much about splits when it comes to stacking the Braves. This team has been a consistent source of frustration all season, but there’s still far too much talent here to ignore.
As I wrote yesterday ahead of their matchup against another lefty in MacKenzie Gore, Atlanta has still fared pretty well as a team vs. left-handed pitching on the year. Check out these barrel rates against LHP:
- Austin Riley – 12.8%
- Marcell Ozuna – 17.1%
- Matt Olson – 13%
- Adam Duvall – 20.8%
- Travis d’Arnaud – 23.1%
- Orlando Arcia – 9.3%
- Jarred Kelenic – 9.1%
That’s a legitimate gauntlet for Herz to try and navigate today, and it doesn’t even include Ozzie Albies, a guy with a .413 wOBA with a .208 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 2 years combined. The Braves’ projected lineup is also an appealing mix of expensive and cheap bats. For every Olson, Ozuna, Riley, or Albies, you can offset the overall cost of the stack by including the likes of Duvall, Arcia, d’Arnaud, or Kelenic.
Atlanta is coming in with around 13% projected stack ownership on DraftKings, so they won’t be flying under the radar. However, their optimal rate of 20% is very easily the highest on the board. Over on FanDuel, we’re looking at around 15% stack pOWN% for Atlanta.
PIVOT STACK
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