MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, April 6
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on the collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Mother Nature isn’t cooperating today! The original six-game slate had two games washed away. We only have four to look at, including our first one in Coors Field this season. Mostly everyone who matters on this slate will carry ownership. Since there are only eight teams to choose from, let’s dive deeper into the Coors Field game and check out the stack in the next best spot to do damage outside of the high altitude. Perhaps we can find one or two ways to be slightly different within these spots for tournaments.
Chalk Stack(s) — Coors Field
It’s our first Coors slate of the season…and this is me trying to sound enthralled by it – here’s an exclamation point at the end of this sentence!
But seriously, both sides of this game will be (rightfully) heavily owned in every format, especially due to the weather-shortened slate. Compared to the Nationals, the Rockies (collectively) have more talent, a higher ceiling, and they’re priced accordingly.
The hype machine was very real surrounding Nationals’ starting pitcher Josiah Gray during spring training. That buzz came to an abrupt halt last week when Gray skies turned into heavy storms, as the wheels totally fell off that Josiah hype train.
Gray yielded five earned runs, dishing out three homers in five innings of work against Atlanta. Dingers have been his Achilles heel throughout his young career and nothing seemed to change after one start in 2023. Well, the doctor certainly didn’t order Coors Field as a remedy to fix that ailment.
Via PlateIQ, Gray struggled against both sides of the plate last season. Dating back to the beginning of 2022, he has yielded a .202 ISO, 40% flyball rate, and 34% hard-contact rate, which is certainly appetizing. However, he’s been much worse against left-handed sticks, giving way to a .335 ISO, 55% flyballs, and 33% hard contact.
The first Rockie that comes to mind is lefty ageless wonder Charlie Blackmon, who owns a career .273 ISO and .564 SLG at home against right-handed pitchers. Although CJ Cron and Kris Bryant are righties, the bottom line is that Gray is still not good against RHB and yields a generous amount of fly balls and home runs.
You can’t spell Coors without CJ! …or something like that. Perhaps nobody embraced the high altitude more than Cron last season. He mustered just seven home runs and a .214 batting average on the road but smashed a whopping 22 homers and hit .302 at home! He’s also a rare reverse-splits hitter, who fares much better against righties than lefties. I’m happily surprised that the early run of pOWN% doesn’t have him carrying a ton of ownership. This spot is too good, so I am 100% okay with that.
Pretty much everyone in this lineup is more than viable on the watered-down four-game slate. If you’re looking for a cheap piece of this stack, do not overlook the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar, who will get some licks from the left side of the dish today. He’s too cheap ($3,600 DK / $2,600 FD) on both major sites.
As for Washington, have you heard they’re not a great baseball team right now?