MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, August 15th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a very ugly, small afternoon main slate on our hands. How are we going to get different? Who’s going to be the chalk? Well, our Top Stacks tool is still crunching some numbers, but we can get ahead of the curve and take a look at some of the matchups. Let’s dive in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, August 15th
CHALKY STACKS
Mets vs. Mitch Spence
Mariners at Alex Faedo + Bulk Reliever
Oakland pitchers have typically been a punching bag to pick on over the past couple of seasons, especially when they’re away from the Coliseum. The same can be said for Mitch Spence earlier this season, who surely had a couple of rough appearances.
Spence is sporting a pedestrian 4.33 ERA, but he actually has a solid 3.76 xERA, and he’s spun together a few impressive starts. Things were still kind of ugly before the All-Star Break, but in 4 games since the hiatus, he’s allowed no more than 2 ERs against the Angels (twice), Dodgers, and Blue Jays.
He was having serious issues against righties this season, but he’s had much success against them across the last 30 days. He’s been throwing his sinker more and his slider less, and I’m not sure if that has solved all of his problems, but it’s a step in the right direction. He has a decent ground-ball rate, which is another bonus for him in this matchup.
If you’re buying into him getting lit up again, I’d prioritize the Mets’ lefties. Although he’s been pretty darn good in the last 30 days, Spence has allowed a fly-ball rate twice as high vs. lefties as he did against righties during that stretch.
The Mets rank just 23rd in wRC+ vs. RHP in August. Of course, this is a very powerful lineup. If the Mets are projected to be mega chalk, I might roll the dice that Spence survives – or just single out my favorite power bat or two if it makes sense on my single-entry lineup.
If you’re multi-entering, it’s such a disgusting little slate, so I’d probably have at least a splash of Mets exposure at a minimum. The Mets currently have the highest implied run total (4.88), so maybe there won’t be a ton of fireworks today.
With our Top Stacks tool still calculating, it’s hard to say who will be more popular. But I’m going to call Seattle chalk against Alex Faedo (the opener) and (likely) Kenta Maeda.
Maeda just isn’t very good. I have no issues rolling out hitters against a likely bulk reliever who owns a .213 ISO allowed, .336 wOBA allowed, a measly 16% K rate, and a 10% barrel rate allowed vs. righties. Randy Arozarena (.156 ISO vs. RHP) and Mitch Haniger (.181) are very capable reverse splits-ish hitters. Cal Raleigh has some of the best raw power in the league.
Maeda is part of a bullpen that owns a league-average ERA but has coughed up 55 home runs. Seattle’s current implied run total is 4.33, which is respectable on this slate. As we get closer to roster lock and our Top Stacks tool shakes out more numbers, I’d be more inclined to prioritize some Mariners rather than Mets IF they’re behind the Mets in the pOWN% pecking order.
Lastly, it’s also a big deal that they’re hitting on the road. Not only do they get a guaranteed 9th-inning at-bat, but T-Mobile Park is by far the worst venue to hit in baseball.
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