MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, July 25th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Early baseball! We have a small 6-game main slate on both sites beginning at lunchtime on the East Coast. There are only a few aces on the mound, but there are some interesting ways to pay up for them and still feel pretty good about your roster construction. Let’s dive in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, July 25th
CHALKY STACK
Orioles at Roddery Munoz
Munoz has survived a few starts, but there is nothing that indicates he’s even an average starting pitcher at the MLB level. His xERA is well over 5.00. He’s walking 11% of hitters, allowing a .265 ISO and a 12.6% barrel rate. He’s been exceptionally bad against lefties, but you can surely use any of these expensive, talented Orioles against him. Gunnar Henderson seems like a premium spend-up cash-game option, but he’s obviously good for all formats.
But what makes the Orioles especially interesting, in addition to their high-end hitters, is the price (and matchup) of the bottom of the order, which is still young and full of firepower. Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, and Ryan O’Hearn check pretty much every box.
First of all, they’re all lefties, with ISO rates north of .200 this season against RHP. All of them are $4,000 or cheaper on DraftKings and $3,000 or less on FanDuel. That’s incredibly important if you want to go up and get an ace of the slate such as Corbin Burnes, Taj Bradley, or Dylan Cease, who headline a small slate with not many other ceiling options at the position.
In terms of the entire lineup, my favorite Oriole is Anthony Santander, who has a whopping 70% hard-hit rate and a .373 ISO against RHP across the last 30 days. You can mix and match some of those cheap pieces with Santander and have a roster with tremendous upside. Heck, you can even just stack the bottom. Despite largely disappointing and leaving what felt like a million runners on base yesterday against Edward Cabrera, the Orioles are still 13th in wRC+ vs. RHP in July and rank 3rd across the entire season.
Our Top Stacks tool is still crunching some numbers this morning, but the Orioles appear to be the rightful chalky play.
PIVOT STACK
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