MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, July 4th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy July 4th! We have some early fireworks on our hands on Thursday with the featured slates kicking off bright and early. FanDuel is adding the 12:35 PM ET PIT/STL game, and DraftKings will start at 1:05 PM ET.
Let’s dive into some stacks while you’re firing up the grill.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, July 4th
CHALK STACK
Yankees vs. Frankie Montas
Our top stacks tool is still crunching a bunch of numbers this morning, but it is projecting the Yankees to be the most popular stack. The Yankees have been sputtering lately, but they’ll eventually snap out of the funk. It doesn’t matter how “bad” the offense has played collectively because Aaron Judge is still scorching the Earth, and Juan Soto has been just as consistent as he was in April.
There are some cheap value pieces in play now because of the sluggish stretch. Gleyber Torres is finally coming around, and boy, the Yankees need him. It’s funny what a benching and a quick verbal scolding from Marcus Stroman can do to help right the ship. Anthony Volpe has slumped long enough that he’s technically a value option now, and he roped a double on Wednesday night, so maybe he’s about to turn it around. Ben Rice should be in the lineup on Thursday, and the lefty has shown plus tools at the plate with a little bit of pop. All of these players can be had for $2,900 or less on FanDuel, while Torres and Rice are still pretty darn affordable on DraftKings.
Frankie Montas has been nothing but average. And if we zoom out, we’ve been targeting this Yankees offense against average pitching whenever we’ve had the chance. The Bronx Bombers still rank 10th in wRC+ vs. RHP since June 1 despite not winning a series since the middle of June.
Montas has been serviceable this season, but he’s striking out less than 20% of hitters, which has proven to be a bad recipe against a low-strikeout Yankees team. He’s given up a higher ISO, wOBA, and line-drive rate to lefties this season, so I just also talked myself into Alex Verdugo being a decent option for large-field GPPs. Trent Grisham is cheap, and he might be my under-the-radar HR call of the day. He owns a .246 ISO vs. righties and quietly has the 3rd-highest barrel rate against them this season in the projected lineup.
The Yankees have a nice salary balance between the two studs and the other value pieces. The Yankees implied run total is over 5, so oddsmakers expect them to do some damage.
PIVOT STACK
Guardians vs. Jared Shuster (and probably) Chad Kuhl
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