MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, June 13th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a 6-game main slate on DraftKings but a 7-gamer on FanDuel that starts at 6:50 PM ET, with the inclusion of the Tampa vs. Chicago Cubs game. Thursday night features a bit of everything – good pitchers, bad pitchers, expensive bats, and some great hitting weather.
Let’s dive in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, June 13th
CHALK STACKS
Mets vs. Roddery Munoz
Diamondbacks vs. Griffin Canning
Both of these teams are projected to be the two most popular stacks on both sites according to our Top Stacks tool. The chalk doesn’t seem egregious, so I don’t mind playing it on Thursday night. My favorite stack between the two is the Mets. In fact, the Mets might be my favorite overall stack on the board.
There isn’t a big MLB sample size on Roddery Munoz, but he struggled to throw strikes in the minors, and he owns a 12% BB rate at the MLB level. He has a nice little 25% K rate, but he also has an unsustainable (but terrible) barrel rate allowed north of 20% in the bigs through a couple of starts.
The Mets are coming back around a bit offensively, with J.D. Martinez and Francisco Alvarez off the shelf, and the emergence of post-hype youngster Mark Vientos. WeatherEdge likes the hitting conditions in this one, too, giving this game a 25% boost to total runs scored. Once Munoz is out of the game, the Mets will get an underwhelming Miami bullpen.
I believe some of the most expensive pitchers such as Garrett Crochet and Joe Ryan are the best plays at the position tonight. Part of the reason why I like the Mets is because most of their hitters are affordable, which allows you to go get one of those aces.
On DraftKings, you can get Vientos, Alvarez, Harrison Bader, and Jeff McNeil for $3,700 or less a pop. I think it makes sense to have at least one of Pete Alonso or Francisco Lindor (or maybe even J.D. Martinez) as the true slate-breakers of the stack. But with Munoz’s control issues, there could be plenty of ducks on the pond for anybody in the lineup.
As for the Arizona stack, righty Griffin Canning is just about as subpar as advertised, with a 4.65 ERA and 4.85 xERA. He’s striking out nobody, and he’s been terrible against lefties this season, sporting a .253 ISO allowed, .394 wOBA, and a 10% barrel rate against them. That makes me really like Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson, and even maybe a Jake McCarthy punt.
The problem is, for as bad as Canning has been against lefties in 2024, he’s been equally as good vs. righties. He has sparkling ISO, wOBA, and barrel rates against same-handed hitters. Of course, anybody can stumble upon a barrel against Canning, but I’m less likely to pay for expensive bats such as Christian Walker or Lourdes Gurriel in this situation. The Diamondbacks are a mini-lefty stack for me.
PIVOT STACK
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