MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, June 6th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a fun main slate on tap for tonight, with a pair of stud pitchers and one game where the weather might make a big difference for hitters. The best part about tonight’s slate is that we finally get a break from Coors Field!
Let’s dive in.
All stats cited are for the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, June 6th
CHALKY STACK
Red Sox at Jake Woodford
The Red Sox are projected to be the highest-owned stack on both sites, and pretty much everything is playing into their hands today.
The hitting conditions are great. Our guy Kevin Roth says the wind is blowing out at Guaranteed Rate Field, and the bats in this game should get a bump. The weather certainly plays a part in Boston having an implied run total north of 5. WeatherEdge currently indicates a 36.9% boost in possible home runs, with a 12.9% bump to total runs scored.
I have minimal faith in Jake Woodford on the mound. He struck out just 13% of hitters last season, yielding a .258 ISO and .411 wOBA. He allowed a hard-contact rate of almost 60% and a double-digit barrel rate. Woodford couldn’t make it through 4 innings in his first 2024 start against Toronto last week, and his career 4.89 FIP profiles him as a below-average professional pitcher.
Salary certainly matters on Thursday’s main slate. There is pretty much nothing but terrifying SP2 value options on DraftKings, and there’s not much upside under $8,500 on FanDuel once you get lower than Pablo Lopez territory. I don’t mind Javier Assad at a tough ballpark, but on FanDuel, I’m not sure what cheap option has a fairly high chance of earning quality-start points. Sonny Gray is in an elite matchup at home against Colorado, and although the weather is good in this battle of the Sox game, Tanner Houck has some elite stuff. Houck is my second favorite option based on the ceiling that he’s flashed this season. Both guys are super expensive, but I think aside from chasing Lopez in a tough matchup, they are worth the money – especially on FanDuel.
That means you’ll need some salary relief. It just so happens that you’ll find some in what appears to be one of the best (but chalkiest) stacks of the day. Only one projected Boston starter is priced higher than $3,100 on FanDuel and only two are more than $5,000 on DraftKings. Rafael Devers might be the top bat on the slate, and Tyler O’Neill is way too cheap ($3,000) on FanDuel. Jarren Duran has 3 multi-hit games in his last 4 appearances at the top of the order. I like Boston to do damage this evening with the wind blowing out in Chicago.
PIVOT STACK
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