MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, August 10
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a tiny four-game main slate for Thursday night. These aren’t always the most fun, but we’ll make the best of it. Let’s see who projects to be king of the chalk and if there’s anywhere else to get different.
Chalk Stack – Red Sox vs. Austin Cox
Although there will be ownership in many places tonight, the Red Sox are currently checking in as the overwhelming clubhouse leader in pOWN% at this point of the day.
However, it may be warranted.
According to our top stacks tool, Boston has the highest optimal chance on both sites (28% DraftKings, 29% FanDuel) at the highest projected ownership (28% DraftKings, 27% FanDuel).
Lefty Austin Cox will open the game for Kansas City. He hasn’t thrown more than 81 pitches in any game this season, and that was well over a month ago. Cox has actually been more than serviceable this season, posting a 3.58 ERA, but he does have an xERA over five.
It’s expected that right-handed hurler Alec Marsh will follow Cox, which is where there is a real chance things get ugly. Marsh owns a .318 ERA, .422 wOBA, and an 11% barrel rate. I get it, but let me remind you that it’s baseball. This is the same Alec Marsh who struck out 11 Rays less than a month ago. Heck, I didn’t have Domingo German or Michael Lorenzen (two underwhelming pitchers) to throw no-hitters on my BINGO card – let alone in the same season!
Decisions will have to be made with the mega-chalk Red Sox. On paper, I can’t argue the play. This lineup is much more dangerous against right-handed pitching, so I am curious to see how long Cox will stay in the game.
If you’re stacking Boston (depending on the starting lineup), I would imagine you want Marsh (a righty) to come into the game ASAP. Rafael Devers (.249 ISO, 13% barrel), Adam Duvall (.303 ISO, 13% barrel), and Triston Casas (.238 ISO ) have all mashed right-handed pitchers this season. Trevor Story is back in the lineup too! Rob Refsnyder will also make for a potentially cheaper value candidate.
You’re getting the best-projected stack by a considerable margin, but there will be plenty of ownership attached to it.
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