MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, July 2nd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have good chalk pitching against the Mariners, bad chalk pitching against the A’s, with good chalk in Colorado and New York, while a Wrigley Field wind game could go under-owned. After all of this, my eyes are set higher where the field is largely ignoring the best stack on the slate. We should have a lot of Yankees, Coors, and Wrigley bats, but don’t sleep on one of the best offenses in baseball against a bum.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, July 2nd
CHALKY STACKS
Yankees vs. Graham Ashcraft
Rockies vs. Dallas Keuchel
Brewers at Ryan Feltner
The Yankees aren’t much less banged up than the Dodgers or Braves, but they still see double-digit pOWN%. The big difference is that Yankee Stadium is one of the greatest home run parks in the game, and Aaron Judge is the best hitter of the Statcast Era and the “others” are cheap.
Graham Ashcraft isn’t a gas can, but he struggles with power prevention, and that’s all we need to hear when the Yankees bring this much punch to the table. Ashcraft is getting smashed this season for 1.43 HR/9 on just an 8.4% barrel rate — but wait, there’s more! He’s allowing a 51.3% hard-hit rate and just striking out 17.3% of hitters. The Yankees in an average power spot where they’ll make a lot of contact is great. This situation where a pitcher is getting hit hard and often could allow for these high barrel rates against righties to break the slate:
Aaron Judge, 26.4%
Juan Soto, 15.6%
Trent Grisham, 11.8%
Austin Wells, 10.1%
Ben Rice, 9.5% (27 PAs, but a big power prospect)
Add the mild power-speed combo of Anthony Volpe at the top of the order, and the Yankees stack will still be a bit sexy. They’ll be high-owned, so they’re out for me in single entry, but a stack on which we should be overweight in MME — even if it costs us 20 of 100 lineups.
Coors Field should be a launching pad. The weather forecast is saying that we’re looking at 86 degrees at first-pitch, while neither Ryan Feltner nor Dallas Keuchel are capable of missing bats. It isn’t worth getting in the weeds about the individual bats because there’s a lot of holding our noses that will have to happen — not gonna lie. But there will be a ton of contact in this game against pitching that gets hit hard and often.
Feltner has just a 19.6% K rate, while the Brewers projected lineup has an 8.7% barrel rate against righties, while Keuchel has just a 15% K rate against the Rockies’ 9.3% barrel rate against lefties. This game is gonna be highly owned, so it’s gonna cost us a ton of lineups to go overweight on these stacks, but devoting 60-65% of our portfolios to the Yankees, Brewers, and Rockies isn’t terrible. These teams are cannibalizing each other’s pOWN%, so we don’t necessarily have to fully stack them every time we play them in order to get leverage.
Neither of these teams are my top stack, all things considered, though.
TOP STACK
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
