MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, July 23rd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
I don’t understand the pOWN% on this slate, but there’s a good amount to love at low ownership. The Red Sox are in a fantastic spot in Coors Field, but we don’t have to play much of them, as there are super-solid pivots as top stacks.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, July 23rd
CHALKY STACK
Red Sox at Ty Blach
The Red Sox have sucked this season against lefties because of the strikeouts, but Ty Blach has allowed monstrous 11% barrel and 87.5% contact rates this season — which are both slate-worst. These Red Sox are great on-contact against lefties; they’ve just struggled to make contact.
In Coors Field, with 87-degree temps forecasted for the first pitch, we should jam in all of the Red Sox, starting with these high barrel rates against lefties:
Tyler O’Neill, 16.8%
Jamie Westbrook, 12.5% [27 PAs]
Rafael Devers, 11.2%
Ceddanne Rafaela, 10%
Romy Gonzalez, 10%
The only complications here are that Westbrook and Gonzalez are high pinch-hit risks and that the Red Sox should be chalk. Otherwise, this is a ceiling spot for every hitter in the lineup, and we should treat them as such where we play them.
But we have to talk about the 500-pound gorilla in the room: Chris Sale against the Reds away from Cincinnati. Sale is in a nut spot, but the Red Sox salaries and the ownership cost will likely force us to make decisions between the two — especially in single entry and smaller fields where Sale+Boston will be the chalky build. Logan Gilbert is high-floor but lower-ceiling direct pivot off of Sale, but Garrett Crochet provides Sale’s ceiling but with a much lower volume floor.
In MME, we can easily just split up Sale and the Red Sox. In single entry, I’m leaning toward Sale and pivoting off of the Red Sox. In smaller fields, I’m probably going underweight on Boston to go overweight on Sale. Hitting is just higher variance, and Weather Edge is telling us that Wrigley could be frickin’ lit tonight, while pOWN% is telling us that field won’t see it coming.
PIVOT STACKS
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