MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, July 9th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Pitching is decent on this slate, but there are very few stacks that are flat-out unplayable. I’m looking to stack the best-projected lineup with a lot of different leverage spots. In this space, we’ll discuss that chalk and the wealth of leverage spots with which to attack.
Buckle up, though. This is gonna be a bumpy ride.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, July 9th
CHALKY STACKS
Red Sox vs. Joey Estes
Rangers at Roansy Contreras
Reds vs. Cal Quantrill
I wouldn’t be too concerned with ownership on an 11-game slate where so much is spread out. There shouldn’t be true chalk, but the teams that are the most owned, according to pOWN%, are the Red Sox, Rangers, and Reds, and that’s probably correct. These pitchers have 3 of the 4 highest SIERAs on the slate:
Joey Estes, 4.86
Roansy Contreras, 4.94
Cal Quantrill, 5.08
We’ll get to the worst SIERA on the slate when we pivot.
The Red Sox are probably the spot where I wanna go most. Estes’ 1.52 HR/9 is tied for the 2nd-worst on the slate, and his 9.9% barrel rate allowed is the worst. We should target the lefties against him, where he’s allowed a 13.7% barrel rate, instead of the righties to whom he’s surrendered just a 6.5% rate.
These lefties have higher barrel rates against righties:
Rafael Devers, 14.1%
Wilyer Abreu, 12.3%
Dominic Smith, 8.2%
But we shouldn’t shy away from Masataka Yoshida and his 48.4% hard-hit rate against righties in a ceiling spot for his power. Jarren Duran is in a nut spot with his 52.6% hard-hit rate and 27.9% line-drive rate against righties to go with his 94-percentile sprint speed. David Hamilton also has a 27.9% line-drive rate against righties to go with his 93rd-percentile sprint speed. The sprint speed is crucial because the Red Sox have been very aggressive recently on the basepaths, stealing the 3rd-most bags since June 1 (40).
The delectable Estes batted-ball profile is delicious past the barrel rate, too. He’s a sea of red on Plate IQ. He’s allowed a 33.2% fly-ball rate to just a 22.3% ground-ball rate with a 52% hard-hit rate with no identifiable splits there, so I wouldn’t scream at you for playing Tyler O’Neill and his 12% barrel rate against righties. Hell, at over 10% pOWN%, we should probably be playing every Boston bat to some degree across 20 of 100 lineups.
Contreras doesn’t give up the homers of Estes, but his 4.33 BB/9 and 9.1% barrel rate suggest that he can get crushed at any given time in a sneaky-good home run ballpark like Angel Stadium. We should start with the obviously elite barrel rates of Corey Seager (16%) and Adolis Garcia (15.5%) against righties with the prospective power of Wyatt Langford. After them, we can play whomever we want, given how much traffic will be on the basepaths.
There are only so many lineups to go around, so while I will be considering the Rangers for single entry, they’re more likely to be in my smaller-field pool where I’ll be playing 3 lineups, whereas I’ll be about even with the field in my large-field 20-lineups set.
Contreras is bad, but he’s comfortable just walking hitters en masse before serving up meatballs as often as Estes does.
Leading us to the underwhelming Quantrill. A guy we hate to love to stack against. I’m gonna just say off the bat that I’m off of the Reds because Quantrill has solid power prevention. He’s only surrendered a 7.3% barrel rate on a 23.9% fly-ball rate. We can play Elly De La Cruz against any bad righty, and the Reds should score a lot of runs tonight, but they shouldn’t score them in the ways that we want them to score runs as often as the Red Sox or Rangers.
If I’m gambling against a terrible pitcher with a low barrel rate, I’m more likely pivoting to the worst pitcher on the slate, who we’ll discuss soon.
All in all, there’s a lot to like in the chalk but not a lot to love after the Red Sox. I’m probably fully stacking the Red Sox in my single-entry lineup and pairing them with a low-owned pivot or high-leverage stack to offset the pOWN%. The Rangers will be fully stacked in at least one of my three higher-dollar small-field contests, and the Reds are strictly a large-field MME play to which I’ll be underweight — more so targeting the Rockies bullpen and the fantastic ballpark for homers.
PIVOT STACKS
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