MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, September 19
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
This slate is about finding stacks that allow us to pay up for pitching with Spencer Strider and Blake Snell in the pool. We’ll look at some value chalk, pivots off of that chalk that we just can’t ignore, and how to stack against a chalk pitcher.
Chalk Stacks – Guardians at Royals Bullpen and Brewers at Drew Rom
With the field paying up for pitching, the value stacks are taking over ownership — especially on DK.
The Guardians are odd chalk. Sure opener Steven Cruz and projected long reliever Alec Marsh aren’t very good. And the Royals bullpen is projected in the bottom-five for the rest of the season by THE BAT. But the Guardians don’t have much power and Kauffman Stadium greatly depresses power unless it’s really hot. We’re looking at 76 degrees at first pitch, so nothing special.
The Guardians only have two hitters with barrel rates above the ~8% league average against righties in Gabriel Arias (8.9%) and Josh Naylor (8.8%). That said, Jose Ramirez brings his .362 wOBA, .189 ISO, 29.1% flyball and line drive rates, and a 55.0% hard-hit rate to lead a stack. But I don’t wanna mini-stack the chalk. I wanna full-stack it. Frankly, you can stack those three with the power of Bo Naylor and add whatever nonsense fits on DK.
But I’m probably not playing this stack in three entries.
The Guardians won’t be mega-chalk because Drew Rom is throwing baseballs and he gets his extreme hard. Rom has surrendered an 11.8% barrel rate and a 31.6% flyball rate with a 53.9% hard-hit rate in 22.2 IP and doesn’t pass the eye test, either. He struck out a lot of guys in the minors, but the average velocity on his fastball doesn’t even top 90 mph and his slider doesn’t top 80. This is all very hittable stuff for major league hitting and the Brewers have the power to exploit these weaknesses.
Willy Adames (15.5%), William Contreras (13.8%), and Tyrone Taylor (10.1%) have led the way for double-digit barrel rates against lefties since the start of 2022. If Josh Donaldson cracks the lineup, he also has had a 10.0% rate, but he’s visibly sharply declining. Mark Canha is declining, but has a history of decent power against lefties. Andruw Monasterio has good speed. Carlos Santana and Victor Caratini don’t have the power to cover for their groundball rates, while Blake Perkins is just a total unknown, as I have no idea what to make of his minor or major league production.
Between the Guardians and Brewers, I much prefer the Brewers. Both have great matchups, but I’ll take Busch Stadium over Kauffman for home runs and the Brewers just have more power pieces to play.
In MME, we should be underweight on the Guardians and at least even with the field on the Brewers.
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