MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, April 10th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Both sites are rolling out 7-game main slates thanks to several afternoon games across the league. Unfortunately, the weather looks to be threatening at least two of those games. Over on the MLB Weather page, Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has the MIL/CIN game with a risk of Orange/Red and the NYM/ATL game at Red/Orange. Any time the risk level includes Red, we need to be very mindful of the postponement chances. The BAL/BOS game is also not free of risk, as Roth has the risk there at Yellow/Orange.
The Braves, Brewers, and Reds all would have been in consideration to be included among the top stacks, but we will omit them due to the significant weather risk in those games. That leaves us with a very clear top offense that could be quite popular if the field is unwilling to roster the weather games.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, April 10th
CHALK STACK
Yankees vs. Ryan Weathers
The Yankees get a matchup with Marlins lefty Ryan Weathers, who is receiving a huge park downgrade going into Yankee Stadium. Weathers has pitched over parts of the last three MLB seasons without much success. The lefty split last season between the Padres and Marlins, logging a 6.55 ERA in 57.2 innings. He did not miss many bats (16.7% K%) and walked far too many hitters (11.3% BB%). He was also susceptible to the long ball, allowing 1.87 HR/9. He is off to a better start this season in a small two-start sample, where he has posted better swinging strike numbers (11.7%) and an improved ground ball rate (53.8%), but 9 total innings is nowhere near enough of a sample to believe those improvements are real. There is also the fact he has allowed a disturbing 19.2% barrels to begin the season, and the confidence in picking on him today comes rushing back.
The Yankees are loaded with right-handed power that starts with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Judge leads the Yankees with a .357 ISO versus lefties since the start of last season, while Stanton checks-in with an also elite .312 ISO in that time. Gleyber Torres is priced in the mid-range, offers 2B eligibility, and projects to hit at the top of the lineup. Combine those three positive factors with a .242 ISO versus lefties since last season, and he figures to be one of the more popular hitters on the entire slate. Anthony Volpe turned in a solid rookie season in which he was excellent against lefties, posting a .231 ISO.
Weathers is certainly not immune to lefty power either, and Juan Soto has displayed enough power against LHP (.180 ISO) where he can be included. I do not think he is in the same tier as Judge, Stanton, or even Torres today though, and he isn’t even projected to be all that sneaky.
Jose Trevino is a solid option to fill the catcher position on DK.
Anthony Rizzo and Alex Verdugo had a concerning lack of power against lefties last season, but I don’t hate them in a full Yankees stack, with Rizzo being the preferred option thanks to his superior on-base skills.
According to the Top Stacks tool, the Yankees are the clear top stack of the slate, both in terms of OPTO% and pOWN%. Their OPTO% far exceeds their pOWN% on both sites, so leaning into some Yankees chalk is advisable here.
PIVOT STACK
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