MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, June 12th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got an 8-game MLB DFS main slate on Wednesday evening. There are plenty of solid pitching options for us to choose from, but the star of the show on the hitting side is the New York Yankees and their implied team total approaching 6 runs. The Yankees’ 10-run performance last night was overshadowed by a 15-run outburst from the Dodgers, but these are clearly the top two offenses in baseball.
Let’s break down which offenses we should be targeting.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, June 12th
CHALK STACK
Yankees at Daniel Altavilla / Daniel Lynch
The Yankees touched up Royals starter Brady Singer for 7 runs last night before Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton put the game on ice with a pair of 7th-inning home runs. Singer is more talented than anyone who will be taking the mound for the Royals tonight.
Kansas City realized they couldn’t just throw Daniel Lynch to the lion’s den against this potent offense, so they have decided to go with an opener ahead of him. This throws a slight wrench into our stacking plans for DFS purposes, but it really isn’t anything to be concerned about. We need a confirmed lineup from the Yankees before we can worry about pinch-hit risk and matchup concerns.
We for sure know Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton are safe to prioritize. Judge is in the midst of an all-time great run right now, with a league-leading 25 home runs and .403 ISO. Soto and Stanton have also been excellent, with each owning an ISO above .250. The swap to an opener is actually a slight bump for Soto, as he should only have to deal with the lefty Lynch in two of his plate appearances.
Anthony Volpe should continue to lead off. His .333 wOBA and 12 stolen bases give him plenty of DFS upside ahead of the sluggers in the lineup.
Gleyber Torres has so far turned in the worst offensive season of his career, but he is up to a 126 wRC+ and .188 ISO over the last 30 days.
The tougher decisions come if lefties Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo draw solid lineup spots. They look good against the right-handed opener, but each has struggled with LHP this season. When facing lefties, Lynch has demonstrated both ground-ball ability (51.5% since the start of last season) and the ability to keep the ball off the barrel.
If Jose Trevino draws the start at catcher, I have interest in his .200 ISO vs. LHP since the beginning of last season. He has had far less success against RHP, but he likely wouldn’t face the opener in his first plate appearance since he would be hitting at or near the bottom of the order.
The Royals’ decision to go with an opener is likely suppressing the stack pOWN%. Our Top Stacks tool still has them as the most popular stack, but the pOWN% around 12% is far less than I was expecting. I would be well over the field if that is indeed where their ownership lands.
The Yankees’ implied team total is nearly a full run higher than the next-highest team on the slate.
PIVOT STACK
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