MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, September 4th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Another 10-game slate on Wednesday, and this should be a fun one. We have an elite chalky offense to deal with, and while they’re in a good spot, I really like a few off-the-board teams to take a hard look at. Let’s dive in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, September 4th
CHALK STACK
Dodgers at Griffin Canning
It isn’t a shock to me to see our Top Stacks tool tab the Dodgers as the most popular stack on the slate. The elite hitters in the lineup are expensive, but there are no pitchers with a 5-digit price tags on DraftKings, and with a 10-game slate, we should have no issue finding a few value bats. Add in that the Dodgers are guaranteed a 9th-inning at-bat on the road, and in theory, it makes sense.
Now, for the matchup – it’s pretty darn good too. The Dodgers currently have the highest implied run total against Griffin Canning, who isn’t great, with a 4.88 xERA and a 17% K rate. Canning has yielded a consistently subpar barrel rate to both sides of the plate, but he’s allowed more baserunners and power to the left side of the plate.
So, I absolutely cannot argue against Mookie Betts, Will Smith, or Teoscar Hernandez, but much like yesterday, I’d give the slightest priority to the lefties – Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani.
The Angels also used 5 arms in yesterday’s 10-inning affair, so they’ll need some length out of Canning, which is probably good news for us. Our Top Stacks tool currently likes the Dodgers much more on DraftKings, projecting them with the 2nd-highest Opto%. I think they’re in a great spot on both sites, especially if you’re OK with a slight dice roll on Charlie Morton or Zac Gallen in the mid-range on FanDuel (to help create some flexible spending).
I don’t think their pOWN% will get out of control; Canning isn’t good, the Angels’ pen is taxed, and you’re getting a road at-bat from the Dodgers. All systems go.
PIVOT STACK
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